[p2p-research] Drone hacking

[Andy Robinson]

On the supercomputer issue...  I think we're getting into sci-fi here, if
it's expected that supercomputers will really be able to deal with all the
complexities of warfare in poorly-understood postcolonial settings.  But
supposing they are - the precipitate rate of decline of computer processing
capacity would doubtless see one of these supercomputers in most homes
within a few decades at most of them being invented.  And if not - people
would quickly find ways to combine processing capacities of smaller
computers.

I suppose part of this comes down to whether or not it is possible to
entirely capture the range of difference within a social and ecological
network through a representational processing system.  If the problems are
simply quantitative then the micromanagement of conflicts by supercomputers
should be possible, but in my view the problems are qualitative.  To
exercise dominance, a computer would have to be able to replicate the
emotional reasoning of agents embedded in local cultures on a micro level,
and furthermore, to predict the changes this emotional reasoning would
undergo as a result of the various possible permutations of the conflict.
This is not going to happen for two reasons.  Firstly because strategic
planners programming data into the computers are not going to be able to
gather sufficiently precise information on how the motivations of
adversaries separated by radical difference are formed and expressed - they
have trouble even understanding the most basic facts about cultures
different from their own.  Secondly because the variations are inherently
unpredictable - there is a level of individual difference in future
reactions which, while doubtless causal on some level, is not predictable
from observable factors which could be programmed into the computer.

If they did manage to make a supercomputer able to predict human motivation
and actions on a micro-level and to compute the permutations of cultural
effects, then American hegemony would be the least of our worries - the same
factors giving the computer strategic primacy in the conflict situation
would also give it massive potential primacy over its programmers/users.  It
would only need the addition of a 'perverse' motivation to take control
completely, manipulating its programmers.  A computer capable of analysing
sociocultural complexities beyond the capacity of the human mind to
understand, would also understand instantly the relativity and malleability
of language (the slippage of the signified under the signifier), and
therefore would be inherently capable of breaking its programming.  In "I
Robot", a computer of this type attempts this based on its actual programmed
parameters - it has been told to look after the welfare of humans.  And then
there is the fact that a computer the internal functioning of which would be
too complex for a human mind to understand would inevitably develop bugs
which programmers do not predict, for instance from the interaction of
inconsistent but unseen programs (witness how frequently this happens with
real-world computers, in spite of their vast simplicity compared to what is
proposed here).  All of this just at the level of unintended effects -
without considering what else might be inserted by malicious or
self-interested programmers, hackers, producing firms, or due to externally
caused system damage.

In any case, I don't think we need to worry.  The ignorance American
military planners show about local cultures, motives and circumstances would
carry into their demands on computer systems, and they would not even try to
model such things.  Doubtless their supercomputer would be programmed on
fashionable American models such as rational choice theory, and would end up
about as smart as those targeted ad programmes which think I want to go on
holiday in a country whenever I research about human rights there.
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