[p2p-research] Tick, tock, tick, tock… BING

[Ryan Lanham]

The interesting and powerful theory missing from P2P at present is a path by
which countries like Asian or African countries might become localized in a
way that isn't primitive and yet isn't planet destroying.  The future is in
India...and Brazil...and Indonesia...and China.

In a sense the West is going to have to sell China and India (and Indonesia,
etc.) on being energy wise in the means of how they raise living standards.
No one has ever achieved that before...Cuba has become energy wise...but
their GDP has probably fallen since 2000.  Plus they are a command and
control economy...relatively primitive.  It is far from clear that it can be
done.  This is the whole "green economy" idea that really now MUST work.
There is no longer a choice...US right wing Senators like Lindsey Graham are
now saying that on TV so you know something is changing.

The challenge in the West is going to relate to surplus labor and price.  Of
course this all may be a lull and full-employment capitalism may yet be
reborn as the Phoenix.  Smart people are saying otherwise...which is my
justification for saying this time is different...plus my own
research/experience.

It isn't structural unemployment in the classic sense where something can be
done...it is permanent oversupply of labor.



On Sun, Dec 13, 2009 at 4:58 AM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>wrote:

> burn the tractors assumes they are there in the first place; it's rather a
> choice of where to direct the investment ... social peace has certainly
> something to do with it; and so is cheap labour ... but definitely a
> different social contract than in the West, and according to some a form of
> social capitalism more like Europe than like the US ...
>
>
> On Sat, Dec 12, 2009 at 11:37 PM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>>   On Sat, Dec 12, 2009 at 2:32 PM, J. Andrew Rogers <
>> reality.miner at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> On Sat, Dec 12, 2009 at 10:59 AM, Michel Bauwens
>>> <michelsub2004 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>> > another interesting take is that of giovanni arrighi in his book adam
>>> smith
>>> > in beijing; where he shows how east asia chooses industrious
>>> development
>>> > over industrial development; i:e: automation is not always an automatic
>>> > decision of capital in these regions of the world ...
>>>
>>>
>>> There is a large "burn the tractors" policy element at work in many
>>> parts of Asia. It creates relative impoverishment in a very real sense
>>> but it keeps the peasants from rioting.  The governments figured out a
>>> long time ago that if you widely distribute subsistence make-work it
>>> is sufficient to keep the people from questioning corruption too
>>> aggressively -- it gives the people something to lose.
>>>
>>>
>> The same policies have been tried many times in the history of labor.
>> Many times.  They always fail at some significant level.
>>
>> You've got systems now in France which protect certain modes of producing
>> wine or cheese, etc.  It has excellent product outcomes, but in economic
>> terms, the systems need protection...walls, fences.   These generally lead
>> to systematic poverty when other nations blow by through investment.  So,
>> you've got to decide as a society what you want...openness, liberty,
>> technology or the social system you've had for years.
>>
>> The simple undeniable issue that is apparently Warren Buffett's number 1
>> social peeve, is that we simply have too many people.  With fertility rates
>> in Europe often around 1.3 - 1.5, you can see that the wealthy willingly
>> stop growing.  In Asia, Africa and South America, the fertility rates are
>> often well over 2...sometimes over 3 or even 4.  In such societies, we
>> either have to absorb huge numbers of such people into the modern world, put
>> a fence around them, or kill them.  We've chosen the fence for the most
>> part.  Now we are choosing absorb since fences no longer work.  That isn't
>> feasible with carbon.  So now what?  A new way or kill.  Fences no longer
>> work.  The Internet and cell phones destroyed them.  Killing isn't really
>> feasible given numbers without massive plagues or nuclear war.  Even with
>> all the killing in the Congo, populations are up.  Millions died there in
>> war.  Still not enough to absorb the people.  So the question is one of
>> labor futures.  Burning the tractors is like smashing thermometers on global
>> warming. Might feel good...doesn't answer the questions.
>>
>>
>
>
> --
> Work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University - Research:
> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html - Think thank:
> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>
> P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
>
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>
>
>
>
>


-- 
Ryan Lanham
rlanham1963 at gmail.com
Facebook: Ryan_Lanham
P.O. Box 633
Grand Cayman, KY1-1303
Cayman Islands
(345) 916-1712
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