[p2p-research] Tick, tock, tick, tock… BING

[Ryan Lanham]

On 12/9/09, Paul D. Fernhout <pdfernhout at kurtz-fernhout.com> wrote:
>
> On your point: "As absurd as it would have seemed to me just last year, I
> am with you." While everyone is different, could you mention if there were
> any one big thing or a few specific things you saw (robot videos?) that were
> most persuasive in changing your thinking on this? Was there any particular
> facts or lines of argument or articles you saw that seemed more persuasive
> than others? Or was it more a gestalt from an overall rain of facts or
> examples?


It is definitely gestalt-ish.  But if there was one overriding factor, it is
the fact that pools of labor are starting to develop in very libertarian
nations (e.g. the US) where there is little or no hope of economically
meaninful use of their skills.  That is, the system cannot find a way to do
something useful with these folks (in systemic terms of useful).

I expect that number to reach 20-40% of most industrialized societies fairly
shortly.  If capitalism continues, they'll either become a state burden or
will be somehow disposed of.  This has been the case with the 3rd world
where bodies have largely been warehoused.  Now it is happening even when
people have an attractive passport.

In my opinion, much of the current housing and consumption bubble is driven
by segments of society who realize, in the long run, they have no economic
meaning to the system.  That number will increase...I watch it increase all
the time.  We simply cannot keep pace with the skill demands of the modern
world.  We don't wish to be poor.  Therefore, you either need new rules or
mass slaughters.  I'm not convinced mass slaughter isn't the outcome...it
often has been in the past, but we've reached a point where we are going to
have large and growing classes who cannot participate meaningfully in the
economy.

Ryan
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