[p2p-research] The bigger picture on health care

[Paul D. Fernhout]

Ryan Lanham wrote:
> On 12/8/09, Paul D. Fernhout <pdfernhout at kurtz-fernhout.com> wrote:
> 
>> Ryan Lanham wrote:
>>
>>> http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/06/opinion/06kristof.html?_r=1&em
>>>
>> So, there is a real difference in that sense in what peer medicine or
>> community-based medicine can do compared to what a "doctor" in an "office"
>> can do. I'm not saying medical knowledge is not important, or that
>> scientific studies are not important. I'm more saying the system is deeply
>> broken. Somehow peers can be part of fixing it. Somehow.
>>
>> --Paul Fernhout
>> http://www.pdfernhout.net/
> 
> 
> I also agree the P2P medicine is underdone...protocols...models...modes of
> getting data...we aren't moving very fast!

Another indirectly related item to the scale of possible changes:
"$232 Billion Personalized Medicine Market to Grow 11 Percent Annually, says 
PricewaterhouseCoopers"
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/232-billion-personalized-medicine-market-to-grow-11-percent-annually-says-pricewaterhousecoopers-78751072.html
"""
NEW YORK, Dec. 8 /PRNewswire/ -- The market for personalized medicine in the 
United States is already $232 billion, and it is projected to grow 11 
percent annually, according to a new report published today by 
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, entitled The Science of Personalized Medicine: 
Translating the Promise into Practice. Personalized medicine, which targets 
individualized treatment and care based on personal and genetic variation, 
is creating a booming market, but it is a disruptive innovation that 
PricewaterhouseCoopers says will create both opportunities and challenges 
for traditional healthcare and emerging market participants.
   PricewaterhouseCoopers projects that the market for a more personalized 
approach to health and wellness will grow to as much as $452 billion by 
2015. Its estimates are based on a broad view of the market opportunity 
beyond drugs and devices to also include demand for high-tech storage and 
data-sharing as well as low-tech products and services aimed at consumers' 
heightened awareness of their own health risks.
   According to the report:
     * The core diagnostic and therapeutic segment of the market - comprised 
primarily of pharmaceutical, medical device and diagnostics companies - is 
estimated at $24 billion and is expected to grow by 10 percent annually, 
reaching $42 billion by 2015.
     * The personalized medical care portion of the market - including 
telemedicine, health information technology and disease management services 
offered by traditional health and technology companies - is estimated at $4 
billion to $12 billion and could grow tenfold to over $100 billion by 2015 
if telemedicine takes off.
     * The related nutrition and wellness market - including retail, 
complementary and alternative medicine offered by consumer products, food 
and beverage, leisure and retail companies - is estimated at $196 billion 
and is projected to grow 7 percent annually to over $290 billion by 2015.
...
   The growth of personalized medicine will change the role of traditional 
healthcare organizations and create new challenges. Most notably, it is one 
of the market forces driving the changing business model of Big Pharma away 
from the blockbuster drug model to a more collaborative model focused on 
outcomes and specialized therapies.
   Primary care providers may have to build new service lines around 
prevention and wellness in order to replace revenues lost from traditional 
medical procedures. When they do, they can expect to face low-cost 
competition from non-healthcare companies skilled in consumer marketing and 
consumers armed with knowledge of their options. In addition, physicians 
will need training in genomics and proteomics in order to stay relevant in 
the area of personalized medicine. To educate the next generation of 
physicians and nurses in the complex issues raised by genomic and proteomic 
science, universities will have to update their programs.
   How payers approach personalized medicine will be critical, as their 
reimbursement schemes will influence the business models of pharma and 
diagnostics companies as well as providers who depend on third-party 
payment. Payers that want to embrace the new science will have to rethink 
how they define coverage. Insurance premiums today are based on actuarial 
statistics that apply to large, predictable populations. By contrast, 
personalized medicine targets small populations which are far less stable 
and predictable from an actuarial standpoint.
   "There is an urgent need to increase the value of healthcare, but we 
can't get there by fixing the healthcare of yesterday. We need to replace 
our current focus on treating disease with a better approach that is 
personalized, preventive, predictive and participatory, the basic tenants of 
personalized medicine," said Gerald McDougall, principal in charge of 
personalized medicine and health sciences, PricewaterhouseCoopers. "Greater 
collaboration around personalized medicine should be a key strategy for 
health reform."
"""

So, this is obviously potentially a huge big money area for P2P. It 
eventually may be orders of magnitude bigger in terms of dollar amounts that 
shift how they are spent than, say, P2P related to Wikipedia, online news, 
or free software like GNU/Linux. The specific shape of P2P in relation to 
that is still up in the air though. :-)

--Paul Fernhout
http://www.pdfernhout.net/
http://www.beyondajoblessrecovery.org/