[p2p-research] Tick, tock, tick, tock… BING

[Ryan Lanham]

I'm told printing flesh is increasingly possible...there are prototypes.
Instead of ink, we may soon have amino acids and proteins in jars attached
to printers.

The times they are a-changin'.

I have been a skeptic on the rapid AGI/robotics stuff until this year when
the trend lines clearly show major change.  MIT launched a 20 person
(faculty) AI/robotics program this week to re-found AI. I hear money is
starting to flow as people smell the prospects.

Ryan

On Mon, Dec 7, 2009 at 9:36 PM, Paul D. Fernhout <
pdfernhout at kurtz-fernhout.com> wrote:

> Ryan wrote:
>
>> Human level computational intelligence.
>> [snip: from http://www.vetta.org/2009/12/tick-tock-tick-tock-bing/ ]
>>
>> Right, so my prediction for the last 10 years has been for roughly
>> human level AGI in the year 2025 (though I also predict that sceptics
>> will deny that it’s happened when it does!) This year I’ve tried to
>> come up with something a bit more precise. In doing so what I’ve found
>> is that while my mode is about 2025, my expected value is actually a
>> bit higher at 2028. This is not because I’ve become more pessimistic
>> during the year, rather it’s because this time I’ve tried to quantify
>> my beliefs more systematically and found that the probability I assign
>> between 2030 and 2040 drags the expectation up. Perhaps more useful is
>> my 90% credibility region, which from my current belief distribution
>> comes out at 2018 to 2036.
>>
>
> With all the focus on the "singularity" (AI bootstrapping itself to
> superhuman capabilities, which can be questioned) it seems people easily
> miss the simple idea that if robots and AI are just close to human
> capabilities, they can replace most human workers, especially as many tasks
> can be re-engineered to be less demanding of some skills. That would be the
> end of economics as we know it, since there would be no way for most humans
> to sell their labor in the market. I'd suggest it is happening even now.
>
> The tragedy in all this is that the trends are obvious between AI,
> robotics, and 3D printing (and social networking and free software and other
> things) that mainstream economics based around scarcity-management and the
> sale of human labor is ending in, at the latest, a couple of decades, but
> governments are not taking any steps to deal with this in a coherent and
> positive way. (Like embrace it.) From: :-)
>  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobless_recovery
> """
> While this may seem to be purely a technical argument about whether such
> devices can exist or how soon we will have them (or even, questioning just
> what we can do with the computers and robots and flexible manufacturing
> devices we have even now), the consequences in terms of planning social
> policy and related economic issues are profound. For example, what do fifty
> year projections for, say, the US Social Security trust fund mean if the
> entire monetary economy as we know it may not exist in two decades? What
> would health care costs be in 2029 if we could mass-produce robotic doctors,
> robotic ambulances, and even robotic nursebots (like Sebastian Thrun has
> worked towards)? Or what would costs be if people could print out most
> medical devices (or even most drugs) at home on demand using nanotech-based
> 3D printers? Likewise, two decades is about how long it would take a child
> born in 2009 to enter the work force after college in 2030 -- what type of
> jobs or culture should such children be preparing for if 3D printing
> replaces much manufacturing, and if robotics/AI and a freely produced
> commons replaces most services? What would the economy be like in even just
> ten years if society decided much of the work done globally now is mainly
> about guarding or is make-work based on scarcity assumptions that are
> out-of-date just in relation to technology we have today (especially given
> movements towards voluntary simplicity or environmentalism)? If we were to
> embrace the prospect of a gift economy and global abundance through 3D
> printing, improved robotics, better design, better materials, and so on,
> then our societal spending patterns might shift greatly, even now, in terms
> of less worries about long-term deficit spending to create millions of R&D
> jobs today developing advanced technology under free and open source
> licenses. In that sense, a gift economy may be an example of a
> self-fulfilling prophecy.
>
> """
>
> --Paul Fernhout
> http://www.pdfernhout.net/
>
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-- 
Ryan Lanham
rlanham1963 at gmail.com
Facebook: Ryan_Lanham
P.O. Box 633
Grand Cayman, KY1-1303
Cayman Islands
(345) 916-1712
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