[p2p-research] interview on cuba's agricultural transformation (new localism)

[Paul D. Fernhout]

Kevin Carson wrote:
> On 12/5/09, Paul D. Fernhout <pdfernhout at kurtz-fernhout.com> wrote:
> 
>>  If there is one thing this shows from Cuba's experience (even as they warn
>> it is a misintepretation :-), it is that even if "Peak Oil" was true, a
>> nation can deal with it very straighforwardly (with a rough transition of a
>> couple years, and some suffering, admittedly, but overall, coming out from
>> that transition in a happier place). So, even in this "worst case", Peak Oil
>> was not a problem of the magnitude that many say it is. To be clear, even in
>> the worst case of changing from an economy based on oil to an economy  based
>> on something else in a matter of a couple years is an issue, and a big issue
>> with widespread implications, but it is not an "end of civilization" issue.
>> Of course, they do raise the issue that Cuba had stronger local communities.
>> Still, one might hope the USA would respond to that with its own strengths
>> and weaknesses.
> 
> Totally agree.  As good a story as Kunstler's World Made By Hand is, I
> think the scenario lacks all credibility (I'm cc'ing him, BTW).
> [snip]
> The impetus to networked micromanufacturing operations like
> 100kGarages, in particular, would result in an exponential growth of
> capacity over several years' time.  Neighborhood, backyard and garage
> workshops with cheap  CNC tools would be busily ignoring corporate
> patents and producing spare parts on an emergency basis as GE's and
> Whirlpool's supply and distribution chains dried up, and would
> probably switch to making their own homebrew ultra-high efficiency
> appliance designs for a tiny fraction of the price of the old
> store-bought stuff from Sears and Wal-Mart.
> [snip]
> Most of this kind of stuff would be done pretty much automatically, as
> a result of market incentives from expensive energy, and from the
> necessary ingenuity of unemployed people trying to think of ways to
> keep themselves fed from their skills.
> 
> Part of the problem is Kunstler's such a technophobe he just has no
> idea what possible solutions actually exist.

Thanks. I agree this is probably a case where the market would probably 
function pretty well and pretty quickly. And you have a great point on the 
microgenerators and regrowth of tooling. Although people voted down my 
proposal for advance planning for this: :-)
  "21,000 Flexible Public Fabrication Facilities across the USA"
  http://opengov.ideascale.com/a/dtd/8412-4049

Within a year of oil going above a hundred dollars a barrel people were 
starting to do stuff. It's the fluctuating up and down widely in price that 
is more of a problem it seems (as Michel rightly pointed out a while back as 
a big problem in planning alternatives).

I also agree on the general issue of technology. One can't make estimates of 
how society would respond to different situations without considering what 
technology we have right now, which generally is in advance of what we see 
in the market.

As is said here: :-)
   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobless_recovery
"Because any related [job-related economic] predictions or suggestions rely 
on assumptions about human nature, embody political values, or entail 
speculating about the potential of future technology, there is much room for 
uncertainty and disagreement"

--Paul Fernhout
http://www.pdfernhout.net/