[p2p-research] Peak Oil confirmed by IEA

[Kevin Carson]

On 8/16/09, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com> wrote:

> http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/warning-oil-supplies-are-running-out-fast-1766585.html

> The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a
> global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world
> have passed their peak production, a leading energy economist has warned.

Even more important, I think, is that Peak Coal is looming on the
horizon.  This is reassuring because it means there's an end in sight
to the monstrously dangerous "one coal-fired power plant a week" model
of energy development in China, and the "mountaintop removal"
criminals in the U.S.  China, by far the largest coal user on the
planet, is estimated to reach Peak Coal between 2020 and 2030 based on
most recent estimates of coal reserves.  But their coal reserve
estimates are one of the oldest in the world, not revised since the
early '90s.  All the countries that have revised coal reserve
estimates since then have revised them drastically downward, by around
50% on average.  And even taking the 1990 estimates at face value,
some 20% of their total content--the most cheaply extractable 20%--has
been used since then.  So it seems quite plausible that Chinese coal
extraction will peak in the next few years and then decline sharply.

I'm also extremely skeptical of algae as a stopgap.  A detailed
analysis at The Oil Drum found promoters' EROEI estimates were wildly
optimistic.

-- 
Kevin Carson
Center for a Stateless Society http://c4ss.org
Mutualist Blog:  Free Market Anti-Capitalism
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Studies in Mutualist Political Economy
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