[p2p-research] Must see video on meltdown dynamics

[Michel Bauwens]

This is 20 minute, fascinating and well-documented presentation on the
meltdown and why it will last a substantial amount of time, by australian
economist Steve Keen, (therefore of particular interest to our australian
friends)

see http://www.themonthly.com.au/node/1894

the basic argument, every previous crisis which destroyed employment
(1890's, 1929) was only solved by re-leveraging, i.e. adding more debt
(there's a direct statistical correlation)

however, this crisis starts at a much higher level of debt than even the
previous ones, making long-term de-leveraging necessary

(see my previous message on Keen, where he calculates with precision how
much time is needed given the current debt levels, at a 4% 'natural
de-leveraging rate')

the video mentions a compartive study that has identified the lonely 11 (out
of multiple thousands) economist, who actually predicted the crisis, and
what different methodology they had used to arrive at their correct
conclusions,

see
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/07/15/no-one-saw-this-coming-balderdash/


  *Researcher* *Role* *Forecast Date* Dean Baker, US Co-director, Center
for Economic and Policy Research 2006 Wynne Godley, US Distinguished
Scholar, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College 2007 Fred Harrison,
UK Economic
Commentator 2005 Michael Hudson, US Professor, University of Missouri 2006 Eric
Janszen, US Investor & iTulip commentator 2007 *Stephen Keen,
Australia* *Associate
Professor, University of Western Sydney* *2006* Jakob Brøchner Madsen & Jens
Kjaer Sørensen, Denmark Professor and Graduate Student,
Copenhagen University 2006 Kurt Richebächer, US Private consultant and
investment newsletter writer 2006 Nouriel Roubini, US Professor, New
York University 2006 Peter Schiff, US Stock Broker, investment adviser and
commentator 2007 Robert Shiller, US Professor, Yale University 2006


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