[p2p-research] Universities Irrelevant by 2020?

Fri Apr 24 04:22:24 CEST 2009

I'm removing george and stephen from the cc list, it was just meant as fyi,
and to invite them to respond,

Michel

On Fri, Apr 24, 2009 at 9:21 AM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>wrote:

>
>
> On Fri, Apr 24, 2009 at 9:18 AM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> Again, to work on something assumes it has value and enduring purpose. We
>> work to ends.  If yone doesn't maintain a model of social evolution embedded
>> in p2p, then it requires the addition of pragmatism or some other link to
>> enable a theory of purpose.
>
>
> agree once
>
>>
>>
>> Thinking something is automatic may just be the strong expression of a
>> hope toward a purpose--p2p education MUST be advanced because something must
>> fill this emerging gap!
>
>
> agree twice
>
>>
>>
>> Scare resources need to be allocated.  Building p2p systems only makes
>> sense if they represent an end we are attempting to reach...utopian,
>> pragmatic, socialist, mutualist, or other.  Or p2p is an end in
>> itself--which is my tentative conclusion.  P2P is an political economic
>> theory that is teleological.  The purpose is an ideal of productive sharing
>> and trust.
>
>
> agreed thrice!
>
>>
>>
>> Ryan Lanham
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Thu, Apr 23, 2009 at 8:55 PM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>
>>> will informal p2p education one day trump university degrees, and will
>>> physical places of learning become more adjuncts to that process, it is
>>> possible, even likely, and for people like us, already very real,
>>>
>>> how fast it will be, the question of timing, that is indeed a question,
>>>
>>> I prefer to work on changing education and promoting p2p modes of
>>> learning, than predict any automaticity in that change,
>>>
>>> Michel
>>>
>>>
>>> On Fri, Apr 24, 2009 at 3:04 AM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>
>>>> I believe the boundaries of the university are fracturing as are most
>>>> institutions confronted with p2p.  I agree with Andy that the more
>>>> structural an institution is, the harder and longer it is to get
>>>> transformation.  Universities are pretty darn medieval in many respects from
>>>> my experiences at 5 of them as student, employee and sometimes teacher.  And
>>>> those sorts of entities also lack a certain resiliance.  They cannot change
>>>> well when confronted with crisis.
>>>>
>>>> If there is a persistent financial downturn, if the rates of e-learning
>>>> uptake continue, then the boundaries of universities as concepts will
>>>> continue to erode--perhaps sharply.  "Irrelevant" is a heat word.  It is
>>>> meant to spur just what we are doing--trying to gauge a spectrum of data to
>>>> come to some revised interim conclusions.
>>>>
>>>> Trends are not saturation, but relevance does entail maintaining a
>>>> certain dominance.  Will universities be the dominant venue of higher
>>>> education in 11 years is answered as yes, no or not a good question.  Wiley
>>>> seems to say no.  I must admit 11 years seems a bold guess--but I can't
>>>> disagree with the trend.  It would be easy to say it is not a good
>>>> question.  I really wonder more what will surplant their relevance however
>>>> much is lost.  It is hard to imagine their relevance will increase (at least
>>>> for me.)
>>>>
>>>> Budgets for the next few years in places like California and Florida are
>>>> going to be horrific.  Endowment losses at some of the big privates have
>>>> been considerable and cuts have been in the press.  I'm not sure
>>>> conventional education and degrees will hold their staying power as means to
>>>> acquire increased economic and social status.  The erosion will take time.
>>>> But as a new owner of a Kindle, I look at my bookcases as something loved
>>>> but as obsolete as a record turntable.  It is easy for me to love books and
>>>> to hope they continue, but frankly, I can't see the trend changing course,
>>>> so the discussion is about timing.  I feel the same about university
>>>> budgets, power, presence and relevance.  The trends suggest and continued
>>>> move down.
>>>>
>>>> Ryan Lanham
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Wed, Apr 22, 2009 at 10:37 PM, Michel Bauwens <
>>>> michelsub2004 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> The car industry is different, dependent as it is on cheap oil, but
>>>>> outside of the US it is in difficulty, but not yet dying, the middle class
>>>>> dream of owning a car is alive and well in Asia
>>>>>
>>>>> but an institutional setting for learning, where people congregate and
>>>>> people specialize in learning, transmitting knowledge, augmented or not by
>>>>> p2p learning, that's a different matter for me
>>>>>
>>>>> I follow downes and siemens, and never heard them say universities
>>>>> would disappear in 11 years, rather, I see them patiently working on
>>>>> constructing alternatives
>>>>>
>>>>> It would be of interest to have their view on the future of
>>>>> universities as well as a timescale, so I've cc'ed them just in case,
>>>>>
>>>>> Libraries by the way, are also experiencing a revival, even in the
>>>>> U.S.; again, their function will change and they will adapt, but I see few
>>>>> signs of their disappearance, they still have very important social roles to
>>>>> play; remember that only 1 billion or so people are wired for the moment,
>>>>>
>>>>> Michel
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Thu, Apr 23, 2009 at 9:22 AM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> Well, Michel, I think you know or know of George Siemens.  He and
>>>>>> Stephen Downes and others aren't saying things all that far from what this
>>>>>> guy Wiley is saying.  If you had asked me in 1990 whether GM could be on the
>>>>>> verge of bankruptcy and irrelevance, I'd have said you were delusional.  I'm
>>>>>> sure the horse shoe-ers on Main St. in Palo Alto in 1905 thought they had
>>>>>> work for life.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Acceleration is real.  In labs now they are move terabytes a second
>>>>>> through wireless.  IBM has said Moore's law can go on for at least 2 more
>>>>>> decades....extrapolating (looking at what Microsoft is planning for in their
>>>>>> labs) you are talking about enormously fast machines with incredible data
>>>>>> absorbing capabilities...no use in building them if they can't be built at
>>>>>> prices people can afford.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Something's got to give?  Who needs a library?  Who needs a lecture
>>>>>> hall?  Who needs a dorm? It might all become an exercise in "those were the
>>>>>> days" type sentimentalism for the past.  Are universities become Disneyland?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Ryan
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Wed, Apr 22, 2009 at 9:14 PM, Michel Bauwens <
>>>>>> michelsub2004 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> In 11 years? Ryan, that is delusional ...
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> It takes generations for this type of change to occur
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> we're barely starting to talk about peer and self accreditation,
>>>>>>> there are no sedimented practices yet
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> of course, more and more people, like us, will learn more and more
>>>>>>> outside channels, finding universities irrelevant for learning (which is why
>>>>>>> I'm hesitating so much to do a phd, the only benefit being social
>>>>>>> recognition, not learning per se), but for the mass of the population, and
>>>>>>> the mainstream institutional world, there will be a long mutual adaptation,
>>>>>>> until new trust forms are sufficiently developed for general acceptance of
>>>>>>> learning.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> one should never confuse one's own situation, with the general
>>>>>>> reality; things will change, and sometimes non-linearly, but I think it's a
>>>>>>> very safe bet to say universities will be there in 2020; not only that,
>>>>>>> seeing from Asia, there growing like hell, (just as newspapers by the way,
>>>>>>> there's no crisis here, on the contrary)
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Michel
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>   On Thu, Apr 23, 2009 at 7:16 AM, Ryan Lanham <
>>>>>>> rlanham1963 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>  I'm not the only lunatic....
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> This from Kurzweil's group...
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> *************************
>>>>>>>> Universities will be 'irrelevant'
>>>>>>>> by 2020
>>>>>>>> Deseret News April 20, 2009
>>>>>>>> *************************
>>>>>>>> Universities will be irrelevant by
>>>>>>>> 2020 in a world where students
>>>>>>>> listen to free online lectures on
>>>>>>>> iPods, course materials are shared
>>>>>>>> between universities, science labs
>>>>>>>> are virtual, and digital textbooks
>>>>>>>> are free, says Brigham Young
>>>>>>>> University professor of psychology
>>>>>>>> and instructional technology David
>>>>>>>> Wiley....
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=10454&m=44482
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Ryan Lanham
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>>>>>> p2presearch mailing list
>>>>>>>> p2presearch at listcultures.org
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>> Working at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
>>>>>>> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html -
>>>>>>> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Volunteering at the P2P Foundation:
>>>>>>> http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net -
>>>>>>> http://p2pfoundation.ning.com
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Monitor updates at http://del.icio.us/mbauwens
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The work of the P2P Foundation is supported by SHIFTN,
>>>>>>> http://www.shiftn.com/
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Working at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
>>>>> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html -
>>>>> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>>>>>
>>>>> Volunteering at the P2P Foundation:
>>>>> http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net -
>>>>> http://p2pfoundation.ning.com
>>>>>
>>>>> Monitor updates at http://del.icio.us/mbauwens
>>>>>
>>>>> The work of the P2P Foundation is supported by SHIFTN,
>>>>> http://www.shiftn.com/
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> Working at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
>>> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html -
>>> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>>>
>>> Volunteering at the P2P Foundation:
>>> http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net -
>>> http://p2pfoundation.ning.com
>>>
>>> Monitor updates at http://del.icio.us/mbauwens
>>>
>>> The work of the P2P Foundation is supported by SHIFTN,
>>> http://www.shiftn.com/
>>>
>>
>>
>
>
> --
> Working at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html -
> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>
> Volunteering at the P2P Foundation:
> http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net -
> http://p2pfoundation.ning.com
>
> Monitor updates at http://del.icio.us/mbauwens
>
> The work of the P2P Foundation is supported by SHIFTN,
> http://www.shiftn.com/
>

-- 
Working at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html -
http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI

Volunteering at the P2P Foundation:
http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net -
http://p2pfoundation.ning.com

Monitor updates at http://del.icio.us/mbauwens

The work of the P2P Foundation is supported by SHIFTN,
http://www.shiftn.com/
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