[p2p-research] Universities Irrelevant by 2020?

Fri Apr 24 04:21:36 CEST 2009

On Fri, Apr 24, 2009 at 9:18 AM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Again, to work on something assumes it has value and enduring purpose. We
> work to ends.  If yone doesn't maintain a model of social evolution embedded
> in p2p, then it requires the addition of pragmatism or some other link to
> enable a theory of purpose.

agree once

>
>
> Thinking something is automatic may just be the strong expression of a hope
> toward a purpose--p2p education MUST be advanced because something must fill
> this emerging gap!

agree twice

>
>
> Scare resources need to be allocated.  Building p2p systems only makes
> sense if they represent an end we are attempting to reach...utopian,
> pragmatic, socialist, mutualist, or other.  Or p2p is an end in
> itself--which is my tentative conclusion.  P2P is an political economic
> theory that is teleological.  The purpose is an ideal of productive sharing
> and trust.

agreed thrice!

>
>
> Ryan Lanham
>
>
>
>
> On Thu, Apr 23, 2009 at 8:55 PM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> will informal p2p education one day trump university degrees, and will
>> physical places of learning become more adjuncts to that process, it is
>> possible, even likely, and for people like us, already very real,
>>
>> how fast it will be, the question of timing, that is indeed a question,
>>
>> I prefer to work on changing education and promoting p2p modes of
>> learning, than predict any automaticity in that change,
>>
>> Michel
>>
>>
>> On Fri, Apr 24, 2009 at 3:04 AM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>
>>> I believe the boundaries of the university are fracturing as are most
>>> institutions confronted with p2p.  I agree with Andy that the more
>>> structural an institution is, the harder and longer it is to get
>>> transformation.  Universities are pretty darn medieval in many respects from
>>> my experiences at 5 of them as student, employee and sometimes teacher.  And
>>> those sorts of entities also lack a certain resiliance.  They cannot change
>>> well when confronted with crisis.
>>>
>>> If there is a persistent financial downturn, if the rates of e-learning
>>> uptake continue, then the boundaries of universities as concepts will
>>> continue to erode--perhaps sharply.  "Irrelevant" is a heat word.  It is
>>> meant to spur just what we are doing--trying to gauge a spectrum of data to
>>> come to some revised interim conclusions.
>>>
>>> Trends are not saturation, but relevance does entail maintaining a
>>> certain dominance.  Will universities be the dominant venue of higher
>>> education in 11 years is answered as yes, no or not a good question.  Wiley
>>> seems to say no.  I must admit 11 years seems a bold guess--but I can't
>>> disagree with the trend.  It would be easy to say it is not a good
>>> question.  I really wonder more what will surplant their relevance however
>>> much is lost.  It is hard to imagine their relevance will increase (at least
>>> for me.)
>>>
>>> Budgets for the next few years in places like California and Florida are
>>> going to be horrific.  Endowment losses at some of the big privates have
>>> been considerable and cuts have been in the press.  I'm not sure
>>> conventional education and degrees will hold their staying power as means to
>>> acquire increased economic and social status.  The erosion will take time.
>>> But as a new owner of a Kindle, I look at my bookcases as something loved
>>> but as obsolete as a record turntable.  It is easy for me to love books and
>>> to hope they continue, but frankly, I can't see the trend changing course,
>>> so the discussion is about timing.  I feel the same about university
>>> budgets, power, presence and relevance.  The trends suggest and continued
>>> move down.
>>>
>>> Ryan Lanham
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Wed, Apr 22, 2009 at 10:37 PM, Michel Bauwens <
>>> michelsub2004 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> The car industry is different, dependent as it is on cheap oil, but
>>>> outside of the US it is in difficulty, but not yet dying, the middle class
>>>> dream of owning a car is alive and well in Asia
>>>>
>>>> but an institutional setting for learning, where people congregate and
>>>> people specialize in learning, transmitting knowledge, augmented or not by
>>>> p2p learning, that's a different matter for me
>>>>
>>>> I follow downes and siemens, and never heard them say universities would
>>>> disappear in 11 years, rather, I see them patiently working on constructing
>>>> alternatives
>>>>
>>>> It would be of interest to have their view on the future of universities
>>>> as well as a timescale, so I've cc'ed them just in case,
>>>>
>>>> Libraries by the way, are also experiencing a revival, even in the U.S.;
>>>> again, their function will change and they will adapt, but I see few signs
>>>> of their disappearance, they still have very important social roles to play;
>>>> remember that only 1 billion or so people are wired for the moment,
>>>>
>>>> Michel
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Thu, Apr 23, 2009 at 9:22 AM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Well, Michel, I think you know or know of George Siemens.  He and
>>>>> Stephen Downes and others aren't saying things all that far from what this
>>>>> guy Wiley is saying.  If you had asked me in 1990 whether GM could be on the
>>>>> verge of bankruptcy and irrelevance, I'd have said you were delusional.  I'm
>>>>> sure the horse shoe-ers on Main St. in Palo Alto in 1905 thought they had
>>>>> work for life.
>>>>>
>>>>> Acceleration is real.  In labs now they are move terabytes a second
>>>>> through wireless.  IBM has said Moore's law can go on for at least 2 more
>>>>> decades....extrapolating (looking at what Microsoft is planning for in their
>>>>> labs) you are talking about enormously fast machines with incredible data
>>>>> absorbing capabilities...no use in building them if they can't be built at
>>>>> prices people can afford.
>>>>>
>>>>> Something's got to give?  Who needs a library?  Who needs a lecture
>>>>> hall?  Who needs a dorm? It might all become an exercise in "those were the
>>>>> days" type sentimentalism for the past.  Are universities become Disneyland?
>>>>>
>>>>> Ryan
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Wed, Apr 22, 2009 at 9:14 PM, Michel Bauwens <
>>>>> michelsub2004 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> In 11 years? Ryan, that is delusional ...
>>>>>>
>>>>>> It takes generations for this type of change to occur
>>>>>>
>>>>>> we're barely starting to talk about peer and self accreditation, there
>>>>>> are no sedimented practices yet
>>>>>>
>>>>>> of course, more and more people, like us, will learn more and more
>>>>>> outside channels, finding universities irrelevant for learning (which is why
>>>>>> I'm hesitating so much to do a phd, the only benefit being social
>>>>>> recognition, not learning per se), but for the mass of the population, and
>>>>>> the mainstream institutional world, there will be a long mutual adaptation,
>>>>>> until new trust forms are sufficiently developed for general acceptance of
>>>>>> learning.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> one should never confuse one's own situation, with the general
>>>>>> reality; things will change, and sometimes non-linearly, but I think it's a
>>>>>> very safe bet to say universities will be there in 2020; not only that,
>>>>>> seeing from Asia, there growing like hell, (just as newspapers by the way,
>>>>>> there's no crisis here, on the contrary)
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Michel
>>>>>>
>>>>>>   On Thu, Apr 23, 2009 at 7:16 AM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com
>>>>>> > wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>  I'm not the only lunatic....
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> This from Kurzweil's group...
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> *************************
>>>>>>> Universities will be 'irrelevant'
>>>>>>> by 2020
>>>>>>> Deseret News April 20, 2009
>>>>>>> *************************
>>>>>>> Universities will be irrelevant by
>>>>>>> 2020 in a world where students
>>>>>>> listen to free online lectures on
>>>>>>> iPods, course materials are shared
>>>>>>> between universities, science labs
>>>>>>> are virtual, and digital textbooks
>>>>>>> are free, says Brigham Young
>>>>>>> University professor of psychology
>>>>>>> and instructional technology David
>>>>>>> Wiley....
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=10454&m=44482
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Ryan Lanham
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>>>>> p2presearch mailing list
>>>>>>> p2presearch at listcultures.org
>>>>>>> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> --
>>>>>> Working at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
>>>>>> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html -
>>>>>> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Volunteering at the P2P Foundation:
>>>>>> http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net -
>>>>>> http://p2pfoundation.ning.com
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Monitor updates at http://del.icio.us/mbauwens
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The work of the P2P Foundation is supported by SHIFTN,
>>>>>> http://www.shiftn.com/
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Working at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
>>>> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html -
>>>> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>>>>
>>>> Volunteering at the P2P Foundation:
>>>> http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net -
>>>> http://p2pfoundation.ning.com
>>>>
>>>> Monitor updates at http://del.icio.us/mbauwens
>>>>
>>>> The work of the P2P Foundation is supported by SHIFTN,
>>>> http://www.shiftn.com/
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> Working at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
>> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html -
>> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>>
>> Volunteering at the P2P Foundation:
>> http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net -
>> http://p2pfoundation.ning.com
>>
>> Monitor updates at http://del.icio.us/mbauwens
>>
>> The work of the P2P Foundation is supported by SHIFTN,
>> http://www.shiftn.com/
>>
>
>

-- 
Working at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html -
http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI

Volunteering at the P2P Foundation:
http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net -
http://p2pfoundation.ning.com

Monitor updates at http://del.icio.us/mbauwens

The work of the P2P Foundation is supported by SHIFTN,
http://www.shiftn.com/
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