[p2p-research] Universities Irrelevant by 2020?

Fri Apr 24 03:52:24 CEST 2009

I doubt my own expertise, categorically.  But lets spin the tables.  Under
what circumstances could we envision systematic collapse of universities on
a large scale?  And if we cannot imagine them not existing, what is it about
them that gives them such heroic sustainability?

In short, what model of higher education is sustainable?

I imagine a market model failure is the only thing that could endanger the
system.  That means the economics of earning university credentials must be
undermined and research budgets would need to have a sustained period of
decline.

If Hakim Bey's idea of universities as research monasteries was to ensue,
then the teaching side would need to fail financially.  What is certainly
true is that the cost of college has exceeded the inflation rate in growth
for a number of years.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/20/pf/college/college_price.moneymag/index.htm

That seems unsustainable, obviously.

My scenario would be that large numbers of the middle classes who entered
the academy in the 1950s and especially the 1960s might be priced out.  That
could happen during this financial downturn.  Student debt growth is
enormous.

http://www.nelliemae.com/library/research_10.html

Under such scenarios, it would be hard to show increases in research funding
which has been also growing steadily in recent years (in the US).
Politically, universities would be perceived as elites and no amount of
athletic boosting would likely turn that tide.

State budgets in the US will be crushed for at least five years--possibly a
decade or even two.  That will pressure endowments as will market investment
losses and low bond rates.

If universities reach a point were they are not economic engines for
localities...based on trims along the edges, they will lose that element of
support as well.  That would be the last straw I'd think, because it is a
great deal to have a university concentrating cash in your town.

So, you might ask can universities cut costs, keep relevant research,
finesse state funding, fend off e-learning and open validation threats and
still deliver a product.  I sort of doubt it.  I'd guess it isn't
sustainable.

First faculties will grow top-heavy as the big grant earners hang on for
long careers and few replacement slots can be freed up.  Next, market
innovations will clip market share both in research and degree earnings.  No
amount of certificates and non-degree programs will offset this in my
opinion.  Life long learning doesn't fit the university model all that well.

Part of market innovations will be p2p education and research facilities.
It is already occurring albeit not at a 2020 threat rate.

Still, it is easier to envision higher ed collapse than healthcare collapse,
and no few people are predicting the latter.  The trends are similar and
often interrelated.

Ryan Lanham

On Thu, Apr 23, 2009 at 8:19 PM, marc fawzi <marc.fawzi at gmail.com> wrote:

> Stanford and Harvard probably have over $100B in combined assets (Ryan,
> you're the expert here) so for schools like that I just don't understand
> what "disappear" means.
>
> Stanford (like MIT) is a proponent of open education and they've started
> experimenting with free education led by tenured professors (on the Palo
> Alto campus not just online)
>
> I certainly don't see MIT, Harvard and Stanford going anywhere. They will
> evolve for sure but they have amassed so much wealth and resources (or
> resource networks) that they're unlikely to just dissolve. It may happen
> more like the transition from the British Empire to what is now "Great
> Britain." In other words, they will still hold a lot of power just from a
> different position.
>
> My 2 cents.
>
>
> On Thu, Apr 23, 2009 at 1:04 PM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> I believe the boundaries of the university are fracturing as are most
>> institutions confronted with p2p.  I agree with Andy that the more
>> structural an institution is, the harder and longer it is to get
>> transformation.  Universities are pretty darn medieval in many respects from
>> my experiences at 5 of them as student, employee and sometimes teacher.  And
>> those sorts of entities also lack a certain resiliance.  They cannot change
>> well when confronted with crisis.
>>
>> If there is a persistent financial downturn, if the rates of e-learning
>> uptake continue, then the boundaries of universities as concepts will
>> continue to erode--perhaps sharply.  "Irrelevant" is a heat word.  It is
>> meant to spur just what we are doing--trying to gauge a spectrum of data to
>> come to some revised interim conclusions.
>>
>> Trends are not saturation, but relevance does entail maintaining a certain
>> dominance.  Will universities be the dominant venue of higher education in
>> 11 years is answered as yes, no or not a good question.  Wiley seems to say
>> no.  I must admit 11 years seems a bold guess--but I can't disagree with the
>> trend.  It would be easy to say it is not a good question.  I really wonder
>> more what will surplant their relevance however much is lost.  It is hard to
>> imagine their relevance will increase (at least for me.)
>>
>> Budgets for the next few years in places like California and Florida are
>> going to be horrific.  Endowment losses at some of the big privates have
>> been considerable and cuts have been in the press.  I'm not sure
>> conventional education and degrees will hold their staying power as means to
>> acquire increased economic and social status.  The erosion will take time.
>> But as a new owner of a Kindle, I look at my bookcases as something loved
>> but as obsolete as a record turntable.  It is easy for me to love books and
>> to hope they continue, but frankly, I can't see the trend changing course,
>> so the discussion is about timing.  I feel the same about university
>> budgets, power, presence and relevance.  The trends suggest and continued
>> move down.
>>
>> Ryan Lanham
>>
>>
>>
>> On Wed, Apr 22, 2009 at 10:37 PM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com
>> > wrote:
>>
>>> The car industry is different, dependent as it is on cheap oil, but
>>> outside of the US it is in difficulty, but not yet dying, the middle class
>>> dream of owning a car is alive and well in Asia
>>>
>>> but an institutional setting for learning, where people congregate and
>>> people specialize in learning, transmitting knowledge, augmented or not by
>>> p2p learning, that's a different matter for me
>>>
>>> I follow downes and siemens, and never heard them say universities would
>>> disappear in 11 years, rather, I see them patiently working on constructing
>>> alternatives
>>>
>>> It would be of interest to have their view on the future of universities
>>> as well as a timescale, so I've cc'ed them just in case,
>>>
>>> Libraries by the way, are also experiencing a revival, even in the U.S.;
>>> again, their function will change and they will adapt, but I see few signs
>>> of their disappearance, they still have very important social roles to play;
>>> remember that only 1 billion or so people are wired for the moment,
>>>
>>> Michel
>>>
>>>
>>> On Thu, Apr 23, 2009 at 9:22 AM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>
>>>> Well, Michel, I think you know or know of George Siemens.  He and
>>>> Stephen Downes and others aren't saying things all that far from what this
>>>> guy Wiley is saying.  If you had asked me in 1990 whether GM could be on the
>>>> verge of bankruptcy and irrelevance, I'd have said you were delusional.  I'm
>>>> sure the horse shoe-ers on Main St. in Palo Alto in 1905 thought they had
>>>> work for life.
>>>>
>>>> Acceleration is real.  In labs now they are move terabytes a second
>>>> through wireless.  IBM has said Moore's law can go on for at least 2 more
>>>> decades....extrapolating (looking at what Microsoft is planning for in their
>>>> labs) you are talking about enormously fast machines with incredible data
>>>> absorbing capabilities...no use in building them if they can't be built at
>>>> prices people can afford.
>>>>
>>>> Something's got to give?  Who needs a library?  Who needs a lecture
>>>> hall?  Who needs a dorm? It might all become an exercise in "those were the
>>>> days" type sentimentalism for the past.  Are universities become Disneyland?
>>>>
>>>> Ryan
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Wed, Apr 22, 2009 at 9:14 PM, Michel Bauwens <
>>>> michelsub2004 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> In 11 years? Ryan, that is delusional ...
>>>>>
>>>>> It takes generations for this type of change to occur
>>>>>
>>>>> we're barely starting to talk about peer and self accreditation, there
>>>>> are no sedimented practices yet
>>>>>
>>>>> of course, more and more people, like us, will learn more and more
>>>>> outside channels, finding universities irrelevant for learning (which is why
>>>>> I'm hesitating so much to do a phd, the only benefit being social
>>>>> recognition, not learning per se), but for the mass of the population, and
>>>>> the mainstream institutional world, there will be a long mutual adaptation,
>>>>> until new trust forms are sufficiently developed for general acceptance of
>>>>> learning.
>>>>>
>>>>> one should never confuse one's own situation, with the general reality;
>>>>> things will change, and sometimes non-linearly, but I think it's a very safe
>>>>> bet to say universities will be there in 2020; not only that, seeing from
>>>>> Asia, there growing like hell, (just as newspapers by the way, there's no
>>>>> crisis here, on the contrary)
>>>>>
>>>>> Michel
>>>>>
>>>>>   On Thu, Apr 23, 2009 at 7:16 AM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>  I'm not the only lunatic....
>>>>>>
>>>>>> This from Kurzweil's group...
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> *************************
>>>>>> Universities will be 'irrelevant'
>>>>>> by 2020
>>>>>> Deseret News April 20, 2009
>>>>>> *************************
>>>>>> Universities will be irrelevant by
>>>>>> 2020 in a world where students
>>>>>> listen to free online lectures on
>>>>>> iPods, course materials are shared
>>>>>> between universities, science labs
>>>>>> are virtual, and digital textbooks
>>>>>> are free, says Brigham Young
>>>>>> University professor of psychology
>>>>>> and instructional technology David
>>>>>> Wiley....
>>>>>> http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=10454&m=44482
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Ryan Lanham
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
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>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Working at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
>>>>> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html -
>>>>> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>>>>>
>>>>> Volunteering at the P2P Foundation:
>>>>> http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net -
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>>>>>
>>>>> Monitor updates at http://del.icio.us/mbauwens
>>>>>
>>>>> The work of the P2P Foundation is supported by SHIFTN,
>>>>> http://www.shiftn.com/
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> Working at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University -
>>> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html -
>>> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>>>
>>> Volunteering at the P2P Foundation:
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>>> http://p2pfoundation.ning.com
>>>
>>> Monitor updates at http://del.icio.us/mbauwens
>>>
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>>> http://www.shiftn.com/
>>>
>>
>>
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>
>
> --
>
> Marc Fawzi
> Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/people/Marc-Fawzi/605919256
> LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/marcfawzi
>
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