[p2p-research] The Pirate Bay Trial, some feedback...

[tom at fluffylogic.net]

My analysis of the Pirate Bay, based on my research thus far is at best it
will be a pyrrhic victory for the prosecution and at worse it will still
further damage them.  To elaborate, I believe that p2p follows the pattern
of evolution and any prosecution/legal change acts as a new environmental
hazard - some forms of p2p will be impacted by the change and others will
be immune and survive, then thrive in the gap left behind.  Just as
'species' is an attempt to place a classification around an always
changing pattern of life, 'copyright' is an attempt to place a legal
boundary around an always changing pattern of ideas.

There is another factor to consider that some are reporting as
significant, the drop in Swedish p2p traffic when the law changed to make
it easier to presecute individual illegal file traders
(http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7978853.stm) which in an article in
the International Herald Tribune is being seen as part of a series of
victories against piracy that might mean copyright can win.  It can't. 
However this, like the Pirate Bay victory, is no more than an single
change to a single environmental factor and the mass of p2p will simply
evolve round it using other techniques (IM or virtual hardrives as in
S.Korea) and betters p2p software such as encrypted and dark-nets (as in
Japan).

Here are some good resources to look at on the issue;

Pirate Bay Loses A Lawsuit; Entertainment Industry Loses An Opportunity
http://techdirt.com/articles/20090417/0129274535.shtml

Pirate Party Membership Surges Following Pirate Bay Verdict
http://torrentfreak.com/pirate-party-membership-surges-following-pirate-bay-verdict-090417/

Anti-Piracy Law Causes Drop in Swedish Internet Traffic
http://torrentfreak.com/anti-piracy-law-causes-drop-in-swedish-internet-traffic-090402/

And also we blog about such issues are; http://plugincinema.com/

Thanks

Tomas