[p2p-research] thinking about leapfrogging

[Kevin Carson]

On 10/1/08, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com> wrote:

> It appears that leapfrogging, a direct leap to a new technological level,
> hardly ever works, even the cell phone is not a good example, according the
> articles below. The bottom line is that new tech requires a lot of prior
> level infrastructure, as well as cultural underpinnings ...

> I was wondering if I could motivate some of you here, and in particular the
> people in cc, to some commentary on that crucial topic, for publication in
> our blog,

> http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2006/03/the_myth_of_lea.php

I attempted to leave the following comment at Kelley's post, before I
realized it was an old one and comments are apparently closed:

The problem with your argument is that history may not be a reliable guide.

What you say is true, so long as centralized infrastructure and
large-scale, capital-intensive, corporate-owned industry remain viable
and accessible.

But leapfrogging to decentralized, ephemeral systems may be the only
viable option if adopting the older style of centralized
infrastructure and capital-intensive production becomes unsustainable.

I expect that we're in the early stages of a number of dovetailing
crises that will render the old kind of large-scale, industrial
capitalism unsustainable:  Peak Oil; assorted other input crises
resulting from the inevitable economic law that demand for subsidized
inputs (like long-distance shipping) outstrips the state's fiscal
resources for providing them; and the realization crisis facing
capitalism, as described by Michel Bauwens, resulting from the growing
unsustainability of IP-based business models.

I believe state capitalism is hitting the wall of resource and input
crises at the very time small-scale production technology of the kind
Borsodi, Mumford and Bookchin envisioned is approaching a singularity.
 The latter singularity will mean the feasibility of shifting ever
greater amounts of production from wage labor to the informal and
household economies, which may be extremely welcome as a safety net
when the old industrial economy stagnates and runs out of gas.

The old centralized industry, to put it bluntly, may not be there.
And the "small is beautiful" stuff may be all that's left.

-- 
Kevin Carson
Mutualist Blog:  Free Market Anti-Capitalism
http://mutualist.blogspot.com
Studies in Mutualist Political Economy
http://www.mutualist.org/id47.html
Anarchist Organization Theory Project
http://mutualist.blogspot.com/2005/12/studies-in-anarchist-theory-of.html