[p2p-research] distributed digital manufacturing forecasted in report

[Michel Bauwens]

*Sam and others,

see below, this  confirms our intuitions and the work we have done at
http://p2pfoundation.net/Category:Design

the 2 most significant paragraphs about this report on the future of
manufacturing, sorry no url yet, just an announcement,

Michel

"*• Distributed digital manufacturing. Digital manufacturing already exists
as state-of-the-art technology enabling organizations to develop, plan, and
execute a product with computer simulations and models. The next step will
be a convergence of those processes, with layered fabrication and
distributed cell production methods. "Supply chains will have virtual
networks of supplies that could be called almost on an as-needed basis,"
Sollenberger says.
• Garage production. Instead of purchasing a physical product from
retailers, consumers could pay for a digitized production plan that allows
them the right to make a specific number of copies, and Sollenberger notes:
"Over the long term, this could represent a major shift from centralized to
distributed, local production."
*


Thursday, February 14, 2008 - Social Technologies recently released a series
of 12 briefs that shed light on the top areas for technology innovation
through 2025. I consider this to be a primer, and I will look into the
possibility to create a series of posts based upon the items discussed.*

The DC-based research and consulting firm Social Technologies recently
released a series of 12 briefs that shed light on the top areas for
technology innovation through 2025. The brief on advanced manufacturing, by
futurist Matthew Sollenberger, is the seventh trend in the series.

"Advanced manufacturing in 2025 will stem from the evolution of smart
software, robotics, and smart-sensor networks," Sollenberger forecasts.
"These will then facilitate new developments and capabilities in
computer-aided design and production processes."

Sollenberger foresees improvements in quality control and production
efficiency that may enable the rise of mass customization—i.e., the ability
to produce low quantities of specific products in a profitable and
high-quality manner.

DRIVERS

Drivers of manufacturing innovation
Currently, the push to improve advanced manufacturing is being driven by the
following factors:

• Sustainability. Interest in environmental and community sustainability,
and consumers' desire to reduce or eliminate waste, are providing incentives
to develop efficient, flexible, low-cost production technology. "In
addition, consumers are concerned about resource availability and community
autonomy," Sollenberger adds.
• Consumer sophistication. Consumers are also demanding increasing
personalization of products. "A 2007 survey of major industrial, electrical,
and transport manufacturers revealed that 73% viewed customization as
critical to sales for products costing more than $1 million," Sollenberger
says. "And 25% perceived it as critical even for products priced below
$1,000."
• Global competition. Pressures to accelerate production, reduce error
rates, and climb higher on the value chain are pushing companies to develop
increasingly sophisticated manufacturing technology.

CHALLENGES AHEAD

Advanced manufacturing is on course to develop into a formidable market
force, Sollenberger believes, but he points to obstacles that will need to
be overcome. These include:

• Bioengineering. Competition from industrial biotechnology, which is
becoming increasingly cost-effective in the production of pharmaceuticals,
will pose a significant challenge to the advanced manufacturing industry,
Sollenberger believes. "By 2020, industrial biotech will be a substantial
and growing market force, and for advanced manufacturing to stay relevant,
it will need to improve efficiencies and generate less waste."
• Touchless manufacturing. Advanced manufacturing production lines could
very likely erode the competitiveness of low-cost touch labor, forcing many
World 2 countries to confront a skills gap. "Millions of factory workers
would need to be retrained to be productive in other sectors," Sollenberger
forecasts.
• Integrative processes. The rapid manufacturing technique of solid freeform
fabrication (SFF), which creates solid, single-material parts such as bolts
or bumper cars, is extremely competitive for many advanced manufacturing
organizations. However, currently available technology is not close to
enabling those firms to produce more complicated goods, such as computers
and TVs. "But as nanomaterials come of age, SFF will adapt," the analyst
says.

FORECASTS

As advanced manufacturing continues to develop, it will likely redefine
present methods of customization and thus have significant commercial and
social impacts:

• Distributed digital manufacturing. Digital manufacturing already exists as
state-of-the-art technology enabling organizations to develop, plan, and
execute a product with computer simulations and models. The next step will
be a convergence of those processes, with layered fabrication and
distributed cell production methods. "Supply chains will have virtual
networks of supplies that could be called almost on an as-needed basis,"
Sollenberger says.
• Garage production. Instead of purchasing a physical product from
retailers, consumers could pay for a digitized production plan that allows
them the right to make a specific number of copies, and Sollenberger notes:
"Over the long term, this could represent a major shift from centralized to
distributed, local production."
• Zero-waste processes. SFF manufacturing already promises to eliminate a
large amount of waste. It is conceivable that as technology advances, no
waste would be produced. Currently, Nike is leading the charge on this front
and is using recycled polymers, water-based solvents, and fabric woven from
plastic soda bottles.


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