[p2p-research] CCI and Hyper-connected globalized localization

[Michel Bauwens]

Dear Daniel,

thanks for this,

I'm publishing this for the 22nd, and it would be nice if you can contribute
a reaction:

Hyper-connected globalized localization



During my last lecture tour in the US, I was particularly challenged by my
host and co-organizer of the tour, Daniel Arraya, about my 'neo-feudal'
scenario, which expects any P2P society to be much more localized but
connected globally through open design communities.

Daniel called this vision 'romantic' and anti-global, ignoring the strong
trends towards continuing globalization.

Here then is an effort to explain why I came to this conclusion as a likely
current and future trend.

First of all I would like to stress that my scenario is not an either/or
scenario, i.e. a form of localization that is in some way totally opposed to
globalization.

However, I think that classic globalization, of the kind we have seen since
1989, is not sustainable. First of all, it was based on the integration into
world capitalism of 'new' areas, such as Eastern Europe and China, a process
well under way and that is not 'infinite'.

More seriously, it was based on cheap transportation based on cheap energy,
and on cheap labour (again Chinese and East-European). Because of Peak Oil,
any strategy that is based on cheap energy and cheap transportation is
doomed to be valid only for a short time; and cheap labour is undermined by
the very success and maturation of the integration process.

All of these trends 'objectively' threaten globalization as we know it.

More seriously however is the problem of global warming and the carbon
footprint of current processes of industrialization, most simply put, we no
longer have the global resources that would allow countries like China and
India to reach current Western levels. We have reached, or are reaching, or
will soon reach, a crisis of 'extensive' globalization. New forms of
globalization may be possible, but no longer on that same basis. I expect
that is we recover from the current crisis, we will see a resurgence of
regional blocs, and more inter-regional trade within Asia, within
Latin-America, etc.. and less 'between the continents'.

Peak Credit, the current meltdown of the financial system, will also
severely curtail the flow of excess money to 'emerging countries' and they
will have to rely more on 'internal' resources.

These are all 'negative' trends making current globalization unsustainable.

There are also long-term technological trends that make localization more
interesting as a strategy.

In my opinion, the trend is towards a 'miniaturization' of the means of
production. Physical capital goods are becoming smaller, more decentralized
and distributed. Therefore, barriers to entry by smaller players are going
down, giving opportunities for more localized production using cheaper and
more versatile machinery.

Think of rapid tooling and manufacturing, desktop manufacturing and mail
order machining, up to personal fabrication and 3D printing as all pointing
to the same direction. Parallell post Peak-Credit developments towards
social lending and mutual credit, have a similar effect on the availability
of more distributed finance.

Finally the emergence of open and share design communities,  of open and
free hardware combined with 'built-only capitalism', which have a different
logic regarding the type of machinery that can and will be developed, will
go in the direction of more modular, granular manufacturing.

We should also be sensitive to cultural changes, not just 'negatively' in a
rise of protectionist feelings and measures, but also positively as a desire
to eat more local foods, to buy more locally produced products, even the
growing use of local and regional currencies which keep more of the economic
flows within certain regions. As far as I can ascertain this is a strong and
growing trend that is noticeable in many western countries, and perhaps even
outside of it.

Therefore, even as some aspects of globalization may continue, there will be
parallel with it a growth of localization, and to the degree that the first
one enters into more serious crisis for the combination of reasons cite
above, this will strengthen the need for more localized alternatives.

I want to stress that this is not a romantic, nor a regressive or
'survivalist' vision. The kind of localization that I foresee, is not just a
retreat to the local, but a positive choice to combine more local physicial
production, with global interconnectedness, with global tinkering and open
design communities.

The physical production can be more local, but the global intellectual,c
ultural and scientific exchange that has become possible through global
internet infrastructures, is not going to disappear, and is a lot more
sustainable than the current form of physical globalization.


On Fri, Dec 19, 2008 at 4:26 AM, Daniel Araya <daniel at levelsixmedia.com>wrote:

> So Michel, get your self into this when you're there. Its a good entry
> point for P2P:
>
> http://cci.edu.au
>
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> Daniel Araya Tessema
> Doctoral Student
>
> Global Studies in Education
> Department of Educational Policy Studies
> University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
> Champaign, IL
> USA
>



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