[p2p-research] from a us intelligence briefing

Tue Apr 29 07:11:40 CEST 2008

thanks Sam, we can hope for such natural stabilization, which for now is
pure speculation, as the expected trend is a die-off. Perhaps we will
'naturally' go back to 2.2 at some point, but in the meantime, I think it is
a surer bet for society to better sustain child rearing.

josef points to the question: should we care or not, that a civilization or
particular 'taste' of the world disappear, nation-states or not, does it
matter that there will be almost no europeans left in terms of scale? Does
our own form retain enough beauty to care for its survival, or should we
just let in 'naturally' fade away.

my gut instinct is always to go back to social policies that make child
rearing a pleasure, rather than an anti-competitive burden in the rat race,

Michel

On Tue, Apr 29, 2008 at 5:32 AM, Samuel Rose <samuel.rose at gmail.com> wrote:

> What is the conclusion? That populations will continue to shrink to the
> point of some kind of systemic failure in human systems?
>
> Populations could be likely to shrink, but they are then also likely to
> stabilize. Especially given the fact that we know the continuous growth of
> populations of humans is not infinitely sustainable, even though growth has
> been an overall trend in the last 1000+ years of human existence.
>
> Local conditions around the world will have a huge effect on the overall
> arc of growth or shrinkage. If there really is growth in China and India, as
> claimed by the original article in this thread, then this could have a
> stabilizing effect on the world-wide numbers.
>
> Also, if people in local cultures start focusing their economic activities
> *away* from unlimited and continuous growth, and ideology move away from
> religious "duty" to reproduce, and towards sustainable commons, then I think
> it is possible that it would be normal to see population growth rates
> stabilize. I think this is what is happening, really. I think it will end up
> being a natural stabilization on local levels over time (as opposed to a
> catastrophic drop that makes human systems unsustainable).
>
>
>
>
>
> On Mon, Apr 28, 2008 at 1:08 PM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> > as far as I remember, some countries like Spain and Italy are much
> > lower, and in countries with immigrant population, the figures hide the very
> > low rates of the native population.
> >
> > I guess the replacement level is not an absolute, as the carrying
> > capacity of the earth could do with a lesser supply, but with rates around
> > 1.1. we are talking about halving the population each generation right?
> >
> > from the mathematically challenged,
> >
> > Michel
> >
> >
> > On Mon, Apr 28, 2008 at 11:43 PM, Tere Vadén <tere.vaden at uta.fi> wrote:
> >
> > > a little bit under 1.8 in Finland
> > >
> > > http://www.stm.fi/Resource.phx/publishing/documents/476/chapter2.htx
> > >
> > > Michel Bauwens wrote:
> > >
> > > > Does anyone know anything about birth rates in scandinavian
> > > > countries, how much does such welfare affect decisions to have children?
> > > >
> > > > Michel
> > > >
> > > > On Mon, Apr 28, 2008 at 12:56 PM, Henrik Ingo <
> > > > henrik.ingo at avoinelama.fi <mailto:henrik.ingo at avoinelama.fi>> wrote:
> > > >
> > > >    On Sun, Apr 27, 2008 at 9:27 PM, Michel Bauwens
> > > >    <michelsub2004 at gmail.com <mailto:michelsub2004 at gmail.com>> wrote:
> > > >     >  - does capitalist society even gives a choice as to what life
> > > > path
> > > >     >  needs to be taken? many women (and men) would like to stay
> > > > home
> > > >    a few
> > > >     >  years to take care of the children, but cannot
> > > >
> > > >    Ah, I recommend reading
> > > >
> > > >    Manuel Castells and Pekka Himanen. The Information Society and
> > > > the
> > > >    Welfare State: The Finnish Model (2002)
> > > >
> > > >    ...coupled with a subsequent relocation to Finland of course :-)
> > > >
> > > >    My newborn sons mother is at the start of a (up to) 3 year paid
> > > >    maternity leave. (Which can of course be extended by the simple
> > > > method
> > > >    of having more children.)
> > > >
> > > >    And personally I'm enjoying my decision to work for a distributed
> > > >    company such a Sun (former MySQL), where I spend 99% of my days
> > > >    working from home office. So I'm working, but with my family.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >    There are various shades to capitalism and Himanen & Castells
> > > > argue
> > > >    Finland is an example of having the best of both worlds.
> > > >
> > > >    henrik
> > > >
> > > >    --
> > > >    email: henrik.ingo at avoinelama.fi <mailto:
> > > > henrik.ingo at avoinelama.fi>
> > > >    tel: +358-40-5697354
> > > >    www: www.avoinelama.fi/~hingo <http://www.avoinelama.fi/%7Ehingo><
> > > > http://www.avoinelama.fi/%7Ehingo>
> > > >    book: www.openlife.cc <http://www.openlife.cc>
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --
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-- 
The P2P Foundation researches, documents and promotes peer to peer
alternatives.

Wiki and Encyclopedia, at http://p2pfoundation.net; Blog, at
http://blog.p2pfoundation.net; Newsletter, at
http://integralvisioning.org/index.php?topic=p2p

Basic essay at http://www.ctheory.net/articles.aspx?id=499; interview at
http://poynder.blogspot.com/2006/09/p2p-very-core-of-world-to-come.html
BEST VIDEO ON P2P:
http://video.google.com.au/videoplay?docid=4549818267592301968&hl=en-AU

KEEP UP TO DATE through our Delicious tags at http://del.icio.us/mbauwens

The work of the P2P Foundation is supported by SHIFTN,
http://www.shiftn.com/
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