[p2p-research] from a us intelligence briefing

Tue Apr 29 00:32:01 CEST 2008

What is the conclusion? That populations will continue to shrink to the
point of some kind of systemic failure in human systems?

Populations could be likely to shrink, but they are then also likely to
stabilize. Especially given the fact that we know the continuous growth of
populations of humans is not infinitely sustainable, even though growth has
been an overall trend in the last 1000+ years of human existence.

Local conditions around the world will have a huge effect on the overall arc
of growth or shrinkage. If there really is growth in China and India, as
claimed by the original article in this thread, then this could have a
stabilizing effect on the world-wide numbers.

Also, if people in local cultures start focusing their economic activities
*away* from unlimited and continuous growth, and ideology move away from
religious "duty" to reproduce, and towards sustainable commons, then I think
it is possible that it would be normal to see population growth rates
stabilize. I think this is what is happening, really. I think it will end up
being a natural stabilization on local levels over time (as opposed to a
catastrophic drop that makes human systems unsustainable).

On Mon, Apr 28, 2008 at 1:08 PM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> as far as I remember, some countries like Spain and Italy are much lower,
> and in countries with immigrant population, the figures hide the very low
> rates of the native population.
>
> I guess the replacement level is not an absolute, as the carrying capacity
> of the earth could do with a lesser supply, but with rates around 1.1. we
> are talking about halving the population each generation right?
>
> from the mathematically challenged,
>
> Michel
>
>
> On Mon, Apr 28, 2008 at 11:43 PM, Tere Vadén <tere.vaden at uta.fi> wrote:
>
> > a little bit under 1.8 in Finland
> >
> > http://www.stm.fi/Resource.phx/publishing/documents/476/chapter2.htx
> >
> > Michel Bauwens wrote:
> >
> > > Does anyone know anything about birth rates in scandinavian countries,
> > > how much does such welfare affect decisions to have children?
> > >
> > > Michel
> > >
> > > On Mon, Apr 28, 2008 at 12:56 PM, Henrik Ingo <
> > > henrik.ingo at avoinelama.fi <mailto:henrik.ingo at avoinelama.fi>> wrote:
> > >
> > >    On Sun, Apr 27, 2008 at 9:27 PM, Michel Bauwens
> > >    <michelsub2004 at gmail.com <mailto:michelsub2004 at gmail.com>> wrote:
> > >     >  - does capitalist society even gives a choice as to what life
> > > path
> > >     >  needs to be taken? many women (and men) would like to stay home
> > >    a few
> > >     >  years to take care of the children, but cannot
> > >
> > >    Ah, I recommend reading
> > >
> > >    Manuel Castells and Pekka Himanen. The Information Society and the
> > >    Welfare State: The Finnish Model (2002)
> > >
> > >    ...coupled with a subsequent relocation to Finland of course :-)
> > >
> > >    My newborn sons mother is at the start of a (up to) 3 year paid
> > >    maternity leave. (Which can of course be extended by the simple
> > > method
> > >    of having more children.)
> > >
> > >    And personally I'm enjoying my decision to work for a distributed
> > >    company such a Sun (former MySQL), where I spend 99% of my days
> > >    working from home office. So I'm working, but with my family.
> > >
> > >
> > >    There are various shades to capitalism and Himanen & Castells argue
> > >    Finland is an example of having the best of both worlds.
> > >
> > >    henrik
> > >
> > >    --
> > >    email: henrik.ingo at avoinelama.fi <mailto:henrik.ingo at avoinelama.fi>
> > >    tel: +358-40-5697354
> > >    www: www.avoinelama.fi/~hingo <http://www.avoinelama.fi/%7Ehingo> <
> > > http://www.avoinelama.fi/%7Ehingo>
> > >    book: www.openlife.cc <http://www.openlife.cc>
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --
> > > The P2P Foundation researches, documents and promotes peer to peer
> > > alternatives.
> > >
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> > >
> > > Basic essay at http://www.ctheory.net/articles.aspx?id=499; interview
> > > at
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> > > >
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>
> --
> The P2P Foundation researches, documents and promotes peer to peer
> alternatives.
>
> Wiki and Encyclopedia, at http://p2pfoundation.net; Blog, at
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>
> Basic essay at http://www.ctheory.net/articles.aspx?id=499; interview at
> http://poynder.blogspot.com/2006/09/p2p-very-core-of-world-to-come.html
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>
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