[p2p-research] Fwd: [ox-en] [Fwd: [F/OSS-Community] The Total Growth of Open Source]

[Samuel Rose]

>From the paper:

"Our analysis shows that the average commit size is almost constant while
the commit frequency (number of commits per week) increases exponentially
between Jan 1995 to Dec 2006. This verifies our findings about the
exponential growth in open source."

Interesting (and so is the model and method they used to filter the data).

Lines of code is of course different than factors like "number of people".
It would also be useful from a social perspective to know who the people
are, and in what context they are participating (personal, through
employment by business, self-employed, etc). But this is of course
impossible to discern from the data provided by ohloh.

Still, exponential growth of lines of code seems to me also to have some
connection to technology "growth" as described by Kurzweil
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerating_change That at least seems to
apply frequently to technology that is useful, and that can be easily
evolved.

On Sat, Apr 26, 2008 at 2:19 AM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>
wrote:

>
>
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> From: Christian Siefkes <christian at siefkes.net>
> Date: Apr 25, 2008 9:35 PM
> Subject: [ox-en] [Fwd: [F/OSS-Community] The Total Growth of Open Source]
> To: list-en at oekonux.org
>
> -------- Original Message --------
> Subject: [F/OSS-Community] The Total Growth of Open Source
> Date: Fri, 25 Apr 2008 19:29:24 +0800
> From: Dirk Riehle <dirk at riehle.org>
> To: community at FOSS.mit.edu
>
> Hello everyone,
>
> we recently measured the growth of much of the active code base of open
> source as well as number of active projects and could best explain it
> using an exponential model. We have found these results, as
> straightforward as they may be, quite helpful when making our case for
> funding further open source research, and I thought, so might you. I
> have appended the reference to the paper.
>
> Cheers,
> Dirk
>
> Title: The Total Growth of Open Source
>
> Authors: Amit Deshpande, Dirk Riehle
>
> Abstract: Software development is undergoing a major change away from a
> fully closed software process towards a process that incorporates open
> source software in products and services. Just how significant is that
> change? To answer this question we need to look at the overall growth of
> open source as well as its growth rate. In this paper, we quantitatively
> analyze the growth of more than 5000 active and popular open source
> software projects. We show that the total amount of source code as well
> as the total number of open source projects is growing at an exponential
> rate. Previous research showed linear and quadratic growth in lines of
> source code of individual open source projects. Our work shows that open
> source is expanding into new domains and applications at an exponential
> rate.
>
> Reference: In Proceedings of the Fourth Conference on Open Source
> Systems (OSS 2008). Springer Verlag, 2008, to appear.
>
> http://www.riehle.org/publications/2008/the-total-growth-of-open-source/
>
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