[p2p-research] from a us intelligence briefing
tterra
tterra at fastwebnet.it
Sat Apr 26 10:09:29 CEST 2008
thanks stan for intervening on this
i was troubled by this posting for all the reasons that you mentioned
and more. Yes in the short run, the sudden population decrease in the
countries mentioned could create problems, but isn't a decrease actually
a good thing ecologically speaking for a while? Can we go on growing
forever? Or maybe our cosmic destiny as a race is use up the planet and
then start colonizing the universe? Wasn't Einstein who talked about the
population bomb as the next most devastating thing after the H bomb?
Second, is it me or there is a lot of scaremongering about Moslems
taking over by breeding more than ??? (Christians???? Shintoists?
Buddhists???? Jews?????? As in Israel, where this kind of talk about the
Palestinian breeding rate is rife?). So we need to go back to
Christianity to start breeding again??????? I found this very
disturbing, it constructs 'Moslems' as a horde ready to take over the
world thanks to their women having more children (maybe to save the
race, Japanese, European and Northamerican women should start having
more chldren as well, work less, take care of the family etc? This
reminds me of Mussoliniì's policies in the 20s...)
Finally I thought that a peer-2-peer society would also be about ways of
living, which could overcome the current crazy arrangements where the
rhythm and paces of paid, subordinate work make having and bringing up
children with love, care and time a heroic struggle., especially for
women, but also for men.
Michel, are you the author of this, 'cause I find this a bit shocking....
tiziana
> I think this author's cause and effect is weak, and he is blind to the
> root issue. I submit that, actually, as women in a country are
> empowered (education, health care, rights, jobs) the birthrate goes
> down. We see the religious trend because in "traditional religious
> society" women are not empowered. When they are empowered, they enter
> the workforce. This may be an oversimplification, but I think it
> makes far more sense then the case presented.
>
> As a case in point, Grameen Bank targets poor women almost exclusively
> with its microcredit loans and many other programs, and not too
> surprisingly, this empowerment has lowered the birthrate in
> Bangladesh, at least, according to Yunus.
>
> The classic captialist assumptions being made in this article need to
> be challenged. Do we need continual growth of our current system? Is
> having a stable population "stagnation?" Can we create a economy that
> benefits all without requiring increasing consumption of physical
> resources? Can countries and people think outside their borders to
> the need to empower the people--particularly the women--of these
> "breeding" nations? I'm reminded of the quote from Vonnegut's
> _Bluebeard_: "The whole point of war is to put women in that
> condition. It's always men against women, with the men only
> pretending to fight among themselves."
>
> I think we have the technology to cope with shrinking birthrates, but
> do we have the democracy and equity to apply it? Not yet.
>
> -- Stan
>
> On Fri, Apr 25, 2008 at 2:55 AM, Michel Bauwens
> <michelsub2004 at gmail.com <mailto:michelsub2004 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
> */3. Shifting Demographics of Western Civilization/*
> *//*
> */Most countries in the Western world have stopped breeding./*
> *//*
> */For a civilization obsessed with sex, this is remarkable.
> Maintaining a/*
> */steady population requires a birth rate of 2.1 In /**/Western
> Europe/**/ , the/*
> */birth rate currently stands at 1.5, or 30 percent below
> replacement. In/*
> */30 years there will be 70 to 80 million fewer Europeans than
> there are/*
> */today. The current birth rate in /**/Germany/**/ is 1.3.
> /**/Italy/**/ and /**/Spain/**/ are even/*
> */lower at 1.2. At that rate, the working age population declines
> by 30 percent in 20/*
> */years, which has a huge impact on the economy. When you don't
> have young/*
> */workers to replace the older ones, you have to import them./*
> *//*
> */The European countries are currently importing Moslems. Today,
> the/*
> */Moslems comprise 10 percent of France and Germany, and the
> percentage is/*
> */rising rapidly because they have higher birthrates. However, the
> Moslem/*
> */populations are not being integrated into the cultures of their
> host/*
> */countries, which is a political catastrophe. One reason Germany
> and France/*
> */don't support the /**/Iraq/**/ war is they fear their Moslem
> populations will explode on them. By/*
> */2020, more than half of all births in the /**/Netherlands/**/
> will be non-European./*
> *//*
> */The huge design flaw in the postmodern secular state is that you
> need a/*
> */traditional religious society birth rate to sustain it. The
> Europeans/*
> */simply don't wish to have children, so they are dying. In
> /**/Japan/**/ , the/*
> */birthrate is 1.3. As a result, /**/Japan/**/ will lose up to 60
> million people over/*
> */the next 30 years. Because /**/Japan/**/ has a very different
> society than /**/Europe/**/, they/*
> */refuse to import workers. Instead, they are just shutting down.
> /**/Japan/*
> */has already closed 2,000 schools, and is closing them down at
> the rate/*
> */of 300 per year. /**/Japan/**/ is also aging very rapidly. By
> 2020, one out of/*
> */every five Japanese will be at least 70 years old. Nobody has
> any idea/*
> */about how to run an economy with those demographics./*
> *//*
> */Europe/**/ and /**/Japan/**/, which comprise two of the world's
> major economic/*
> */engines, aren't merely in recession, they're shutting down. This
> will/*
> */have a huge impact on the world economy, and it is already
> beginning to/*
> */happen. Why are the birthrates so low? There is a direct
> correlation between/*
> */abandonment of traditional religious society and a drop in
> birth rate, and/*
> */Christianity in /**/Europe/**/ is becoming irrelevant./*
> *//*
> */The second reason is economic. When the birth rate drops below/*
> */replacement, the population ages. With fewer working people to
> support/*
> */more retired people, it puts a crushing tax burden on the
> smaller group of/*
> */working age people. As a result, young people delay marriage and
> having a/*
> */family. Once this trend starts, the downward spiral only gets
> worse./*
> */These countries have abandoned all the traditions they formerly
> held in/*
> */regard to having families and raising children./*
> *//*
> */The /**/U.S./**/ birth rate is 2.0, just below replacement. We
> have an increase/*
> */in population because of immigration. When broken down by
> ethnicity, the/*
> */Anglo birth rate is 1.6 (same as /**/France/**/) while the
> Hispanic birth rate/*
> */is 2.7. In the /**/U.S./**/ , the baby boomers are starting to
> retire in massive/*
> */numbers. This will push the elder dependency ratio from 19 to/*
> */38 over the next 10 to 15 years. This is not as bad as
> /**/Europe/**/ , but still/*
> */represents the same kind of trend./*
> *//*
> */Western civilization seems to have forgotten what every primitive/*
> */society understands-you need kids to have a healthy society.
> Children/*
> */are huge consumers. Then they grow up to become tax payers.
> That's how a/*
> */society works, but the postmodern secular state seems to have
> forgotten/*
> */that. If /**/U.S./**/ birth rates of the past 20 to 30 years had
> been the same/*
> */as post-World War II, there would be no Social Security or
> Medicare/*
> */problems./*
> *//*
> */The world's most effective birth control device is money. [I
> love this/*
> */line!!] As society creates a middle class and women move into
> the workforce, birth rates/*
> */drop. Having large families is incompatible with middle class
> living./*
> *//*
> */The quickest way to drop the birth rate is through rapid economic/*
> */development. After World War II, the /**/U.S./**/ instituted a
> $600 tax credit/*
> */per child. The idea was to enable mom and dad to have four
> children/*
> */without being troubled by taxes. This led to a baby boom of 22
> million kids,/*
> */which was a huge consumer market. That turned into a huge tax
> base./*
> */However, to match that incentive in today's dollars would cost
> $12,000/*
> */per child./*
> *//*
> */China/**/ and /**/India/**/ do not have declining populations.
> However, in both/*
> */countries, there is a preference for boys over girls, and we now
> have/*
> */the technology to know which is which before they are born. In
> /**/China/**/ and/*
> */India/**/, families are aborting the girls. As a result, in each
> of these/*
> */countries there are 70 million boys growing up who will never
> find/*
> */wives. When left alone, nature produces 103 boys for every 100
> girls. In/*
> */some provinces, however, the ratio is 128 boys to every 100
> girls. I have/*
> */read that this creates a potentially explosive situation. You
> have to keep/*
> */all these potential sources of political instability contented.
> One way, historically/*
> */often used, is war./*
> *//*
> */The birth rate in /**/Russia/**/ is so low that by 2050 their
> population will be/*
> */smaller than that of /**/Yemen/**/. /**/Russia/**/ has one-sixth
> of the earth's land/*
> */surface and much of its oil. You can't control that much area
> with such/*
> */a small population. Immed iately to the south, you have
> /**/China/**/ with 70/*
> */million unmarried men who are a real potential nightmare
> scenario for /**/Russia/**/ /*
> */[See my comment above.]/*
>
> --
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