[p2p-research] from a us intelligence briefing

[Michel Bauwens]

*3. Shifting Demographics of Western Civilization*
**
*Most countries in the Western world have stopped breeding.*
**
*For a civilization obsessed with sex, this is remarkable.  Maintaining a*
*steady population requires a birth rate of 2.1  In **Western Europe** , the
*
*birth rate currently stands at 1.5, or 30 percent below replacement. In*
*30 years there will be 70 to 80 million fewer Europeans than there are*
*today.  The current birth rate in **Germany** is 1.3. **Italy** and **Spain
** are even*
*lower at 1.2. At that rate, the working age population declines by 30
percent in 20*
*years, which has a huge impact on the economy.  When you don't have young*
*workers to replace the older ones, you have to import them.*
**
*The European countries are currently importing Moslems. Today, the*
*Moslems comprise 10 percent of France and Germany, and the percentage is*
*rising rapidly because they have higher birthrates. However, the Moslem*
*populations are not being integrated into the cultures of their host*
*countries, which is a political catastrophe. One reason Germany and France*
*don't support the **Iraq** war is they fear their Moslem populations will
explode on them. By*
*2020, more than half of all births in the **Netherlands** will be
non-European.*
**
*The huge design flaw in the postmodern secular state is that you need a*
*traditional religious society birth rate to sustain it. The Europeans*
*simply don't wish to have children, so they are dying.  In **Japan** , the*
*birthrate is 1.3. As a result, **Japan** will lose up to 60 million people
over*
*the next 30 years. Because **Japan** has a very different society than **
Europe**, they*
*refuse to import workers. Instead, they are just shutting down. **Japan*
*has already closed 2,000 schools, and is closing them down at the rate*
*of 300 per year.  **Japan** is also aging very rapidly. By 2020, one out of
*
*every  five Japanese will be at least 70 years old. Nobody has any idea*
*about how to run an economy with those demographics.*
**
*Europe** and **Japan**, which comprise two of the world's major economic*
*engines, aren't merely in recession, they're shutting down. This will*
*have a huge impact on the world economy, and it is already beginning to*
*happen. Why are the birthrates so low? There is a direct correlation
between*
*abandonment of  traditional religious society and a drop in birth rate, and
*
*Christianity in **Europe** is becoming irrelevant.*
**
*The second reason is economic. When the birth rate drops below*
*replacement, the population ages. With fewer working people to support*
*more retired people, it puts a crushing tax burden on the smaller group of*
*working age people. As a result, young people delay marriage and having a*
*family. Once this trend starts, the downward spiral only gets worse.*
*These countries have abandoned all the traditions they formerly held in*
*regard to having families and raising children.*
**
*The **U.S.** birth rate is 2.0, just below replacement. We have an increase
*
*in population because of immigration. When broken down by ethnicity, the*
*Anglo birth rate is 1.6 (same as **France**) while the Hispanic birth rate*
*is 2.7.   In the **U.S.** , the baby boomers are starting to retire in
massive*
*numbers. This will push the elder dependency ratio from 19 to*
*38 over the next 10 to 15 years. This is not as bad as **Europe** , but
still*
*represents the same kind of trend.*
**
*Western civilization seems to have forgotten what every primitive*
*society understands-you need kids to have a healthy society. Children*
*are huge consumers. Then they grow up to become tax payers. That's how a*
*society works, but the postmodern secular state seems to have forgotten*
*that. If **U.S.** birth rates of the past 20 to 30 years had been the same*
*as post-World War II, there would be no Social Security or Medicare*
*problems.*
**
*The world's most effective birth control device is money. [I love this*
*line!!]  As society creates a middle class and women move into the
workforce, birth rates*
*drop. Having large families is incompatible with middle class living.*
**
*The quickest way to drop the birth rate is through rapid economic*
*development.  After World War II, the **U.S.** instituted a $600 tax credit
*
*per child. The idea was to enable mom and dad to have four children*
*without being troubled by taxes. This led to a baby boom of 22 million
kids,*
*which was a huge consumer market. That turned into a huge tax base.*
*However, to match that incentive in today's dollars would cost $12,000*
*per child.*
**
*China** and **India** do not have declining populations. However, in both*
*countries, there is a preference for boys over girls, and we now have*
*the technology to know which is which before they are born. In **China**and
*
*India**, families are aborting the girls. As a result, in each of these*
*countries there are 70 million boys growing up who will never find*
*wives. When left alone, nature produces 103 boys for every 100 girls. In*
*some provinces, however, the ratio is 128 boys to every 100 girls. I have*
*read that this creates a potentially explosive situation.  You have to keep
*
*all these potential sources of political instability contented.  One way,
historically*
*often used, is war.*
**
*The birth rate in **Russia** is so low that by 2050 their population will
be*
*smaller than that of **Yemen**. **Russia** has one-sixth of the earth's
land*
*surface and much of its oil. You can't control that much area with  such*
*a small population.  Immed iately to the south, you have **China** with 70*
*million unmarried men who are a real potential nightmare scenario for **
Russia**  *
*[See my comment above.]*

-- 
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Basic essay at http://www.ctheory.net/articles.aspx?id=499; interview at
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