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Mon, 11 Jul 2022 13:00:03 -0400 (EDT) Received: by localhost (Postfix, from userid 1000) id D2B375F7C1; Mon, 11 Jul 2022 12:59:53 -0400 (EDT) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2022 12:59:53 -0400 From: Peter Todd To: Anthony Towns Message-ID: References: <20220711023247.GA21856@erisian.com.au> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/signed; micalg=pgp-sha512; protocol="application/pgp-signature"; boundary="/ftE8NY1AzeElKdO" Content-Disposition: inline In-Reply-To: <20220711023247.GA21856@erisian.com.au> Cc: Bitcoin Protocol Discussion Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Surprisingly, Tail Emission Is Not Inflationary X-BeenThere: bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.15 Precedence: list List-Id: Bitcoin Protocol Discussion List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2022 17:00:12 -0000 --/ftE8NY1AzeElKdO Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Disposition: inline Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable On Mon, Jul 11, 2022 at 12:32:47PM +1000, Anthony Towns wrote: > This isn't necessarily true: if the losses are due to a common cause, > then they'll be heavily correlated rather than independent; for example > losses could be caused by a bug in a popular wallet/exchange software > that sends funds to invalid addresses, or by a war or natural disaster > that damages key storage hardware. They're also not independent over > time -- people improve their key storage habits over time; eg switching > to less buggy wallets/exchanges, validating addresses before using them, > using distributed multisig to prevent a localised disaster from being > catastrophic. People clearly continue to make downright irrational decisions about coin security, doing things putting their entire crypto savings at risk for clai= med 5% returns. Even if people were rational, the coin loss rate would clearly reach a floor because as the probability of coin loss goes down, bothering to spend extra effort to decrease that already small chance is pointless. You mentioning b= lack swan events actually strengthens my point: at low coin loss rates the true = loss rate is dominated by black swan events. So it's pointless to go to extra ef= fort to prevent them. Finally, you're forgetting that coin loss also includes *intentional* losses =66rom proof-of-sacrifice protocols. There are a number of examples on Bitc= oin. Again, they put a floor on how much coin loss could diminish. > loss rate. If that's the case, then the rate at which funds are lost will > vary chaotically, leading to "inflationary" periods in between events, > and comparatively strong deflationary shocks when these events occur. Give me an example of an *actual* inflation rate you expect to see, given a disaster of a given magnitude. If you actually do the numbers on this, you'll realize it takes absolutely catastrophic black swan events that make WW2 look like a minor conflict to = make even insignificant inflation rate changes due to changes in lost coins. --=20 https://petertodd.org 'peter'[:-1]@petertodd.org --/ftE8NY1AzeElKdO Content-Type: application/pgp-signature; name="signature.asc" -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- iQIzBAEBCgAdFiEE0RcYcKRzsEwFZ3N5Lly11TVRLzcFAmLMVwcACgkQLly11TVR Lzen6g/7B5HuGvCOMUmuLtX1Qa2h9QKr88LWyW9gWKbnBzCxVASqH0faI6/Pcdxx YeeGyUKJ5cgKUBaI/RX+pUCxE/DpP+jv0ChdGJOwpoa3e38P8igGrQbdDHyffgCj vNktDn38VVQGHsxGHQehT7W9NxcVCtpBDK1Spu83tG1gTRxqMTANkXUyb15b01iT Pr8qKEMYi3q4B+UC90k2yxHv4bjR0R9KFtVWVr8sIoPQrxM1GBlBaxVs031sHVUw wPRPpxruWSEZGs8xEqVq0FAOzzS5LNaPYsaqdEz+lYhKsJ7cKUr3Qxu45Zyb3j94 B/nZXEZTW0XLYXw84U3NeZ9ug6M0jrUJhqNva9fOZ0J8CUhZ3+KwiGFbKCE2Fhfa S91tu2lhbDS/gyq5PNTyns0n2IaFg9SFZOfLaUyZaLA3ttShN0bVemNXhImou3gN yutOk8YpHwCHwTS6MOgP04ITxLrvim5qghzGV9HaW5QmC6MGTYdJ6l05zELjXrPY JXj/FCoPwbvi1lOcdvrYhVoem9WkOd4PjaxReKqei17Ywotlr3UWvvdLP6GNjvJC b/6etO1WyhKNapXlwuGk6OHMvqqOAWQk7jTbi5ZPW6/8hBsrojQ/g/6QmsaHfO3p M5/hWsVrjsmeIE0jLGZOkFFiEvHLlnMhXMXqP0tBAJXGMlErkVo= =LumJ -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- --/ftE8NY1AzeElKdO--