Received: from sog-mx-3.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com ([172.29.43.193] helo=mx.sourceforge.net) by sfs-ml-3.v29.ch3.sourceforge.com with esmtp (Exim 4.76) (envelope-from ) id 1Wc3RS-0001kM-3Y for bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net; Mon, 21 Apr 2014 01:54:42 +0000 X-ACL-Warn: Received: from fallback3.mail.ox.ac.uk ([163.1.2.167]) by sog-mx-3.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com with esmtp (Exim 4.76) id 1Wc3RO-0002IU-GQ for bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net; Mon, 21 Apr 2014 01:54:42 +0000 Received: from relay12.mail.ox.ac.uk ([129.67.1.163]) by fallback3.mail.ox.ac.uk with esmtp (Exim 4.80) (envelope-from ) id 1Wc348-0002F4-CM for bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net; Mon, 21 Apr 2014 02:30:36 +0100 Received: from hub01.nexus.ox.ac.uk ([163.1.154.218] helo=HUB01.ad.oak.ox.ac.uk) by relay12.mail.ox.ac.uk with esmtp (Exim 4.80) (envelope-from ) id 1Wc343-00084w-ct for bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net; Mon, 21 Apr 2014 02:30:31 +0100 Received: from MBX03.ad.oak.ox.ac.uk ([169.254.3.44]) by HUB01.ad.oak.ox.ac.uk ([163.1.154.92]) with mapi id 14.03.0169.001; Mon, 21 Apr 2014 02:30:29 +0100 From: Jonathan Levin To: "bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net" Thread-Topic: Economics of information propagation Thread-Index: AQHPXQFHGdaFncBcs0KW0TsCt8MASA== Date: Mon, 21 Apr 2014 01:30:28 +0000 Message-ID: <52CDA01B-13BF-4BB8-AC9A-5FBBB324FD15@sant.ox.ac.uk> References: In-Reply-To: Accept-Language: en-GB, en-US Content-Language: en-US X-MS-Has-Attach: yes X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: x-originating-ip: [172.16.150.236] Content-Type: multipart/signed; boundary="Apple-Mail=_CD22250C-F5BF-46DE-8A3A-8F5B0566D2C1"; protocol="application/pgp-signature"; micalg=pgp-sha512 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Spam-Score: -0.7 (/) X-Spam-Report: Spam Filtering performed by mx.sourceforge.net. See http://spamassassin.org/tag/ for more details. -0.7 RP_MATCHES_RCVD Envelope sender domain matches handover relay domain X-Headers-End: 1Wc3RO-0002IU-GQ Subject: [Bitcoin-development] Economics of information propagation X-BeenThere: bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.9 Precedence: list List-Id: List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 21 Apr 2014 01:54:42 -0000 --Apple-Mail=_CD22250C-F5BF-46DE-8A3A-8F5B0566D2C1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/plain; charset=windows-1252 Hi all, I am a post-graduate economist writing a paper on the incentives of = mining. Even though this issue has been debated in the forums, I think = it is important to get a sense of the magnitude of the incentives at = play and determine what implications this has for the transaction fee = market. As it has been pointed out before the marginal cost for miners does not = stem from the private cost of the miner validating the signature and = including it in the list of transactions in the block but rather the = increased probability that the block will be orphaned as a result of = slower propagation. Gavin did some back of the envelope worst case = calculations but these overstated the effect of propagation delay. The = reason being the 80ms additional time to reach 50% of the network is = spread throughout the time that it takes to reach 50% of the network. = During this time miners are notified about the block and treat it as the = longest chain and hence are no longer mining with the aim to produce a = competing block.=20 I am looking to calculate the change in the curvature of the probability = mass function that a block hears about my block in any given second as a = function of the block size. Although there is likely to be significant = noise here, there seems to be some stable linear relationships with the = time that it takes to reach different quartiles. Has anyone done this? I = have used some empirical data that I am happy to share but ideally I = would like analytical solutions. Following Peter Todd, I also find the concerning result that propagation = delays results in increasing returns to higher shares of the hashing = power. Indeed it may well be in the interest of large pools to publish = large blocks to increase propagation delays on the network which would = increase orphan rates particularly for small miners and miners that have = not invested in sufficient bandwidth / connectivity. If a small miner = hears about a block after 4.5 seconds on average there is a 0.7% chance = that there is already a block in circulation. Large miners can increase = the time that it takes for small miners to hear about blocks by = increasing the size of their blocks. For example if the time that it = takes for a small miner to hear about the block goes to 12 seconds there = is a 2 percent chance there is already a block in circulation for the = small miner. There is also a 1.2% chance that there will be a competing = block published after a small miner propagates in the time that it gets = to full propagation. Am I getting this right that the probability of a = miner=92s block being orphaned is comprised of the probability that the = miner was not the first to find a valid block and the probability that = given they are first, someone else in the absence of hearing about it = finds a competing valid block.=20 One question is: Are orphans probabilistic and only resolved after = hearing about a new block that lengthens the chain or is there a way to = know in advance? Is it frowned upon to mine on top of a block that you = have just found even though it is very likely going to end up an orphan? Would be happy to share the draft form of the paper and receive any = feedback. Finally, at coinometrics we are working on a modified client to capture = information on network propagation and would invite any suggestions of = any other useful statistics that would be useful in the development of = software.=20 Best, Jonathan On 21 Apr 2014, at 01:16, = = wrote: > Send Bitcoin-development mailing list submissions to > bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net >=20 > To subscribe or unsubscribe via the World Wide Web, visit > https://lists.sourceforge.net/lists/listinfo/bitcoin-development > or, via email, send a message with subject or body 'help' to > bitcoin-development-request@lists.sourceforge.net >=20 > You can reach the person managing the list at > bitcoin-development-owner@lists.sourceforge.net >=20 > When replying, please edit your Subject line so it is more specific > than "Re: Contents of Bitcoin-development digest..." >=20 >=20 > Today's Topics: >=20 > 1. Re: "bits": Unit of account (Oliver Egginger) > 2. Re: "bits": Unit of account (Christophe Biocca) > 3. Re: "bits": Unit of account (Gmail) > 4. Re: "bits": Unit of account (Mike Caldwell) > 5. Re: "bits": Unit of account (Justin A) >=20 >=20 > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- >=20 > Message: 1 > Date: Sun, 20 Apr 2014 20:43:24 +0200 > From: Oliver Egginger > Subject: Re: [Bitcoin-development] "bits": Unit of account > To: Bitcoin Development > Message-ID: <5354154C.1080908@olivere.de> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=3DISO-8859-1 >=20 > Hello, >=20 > just my two 'cents': >=20 > Terms arises by itself. Just as most people speak of coins when they > mean bitcoins. I do not see that bitcoin is currently in common use > except for speculation. Therefore no term for smaller units has > established yet. No problem in my eyes. Time will tell. >=20 > - oliver >=20 >=20 >=20 >=20 > ------------------------------ >=20 > Message: 2 > Date: Sun, 20 Apr 2014 15:19:38 -0400 > From: Christophe Biocca > Subject: Re: [Bitcoin-development] "bits": Unit of account > To: Bitcoin Development > Message-ID: > = > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=3DUTF-8 >=20 > Culturally neutral? "bit" in French phonetically collides with slang > for phallus ("bitte", with a silent "e"). Apparently it means "louse" > in Turkish as well. >=20 > Not that this really would be avoidable with any short word (all the > short possible words are usually taken), but it's not neutral. >=20 > On Sun, Apr 20, 2014 at 2:43 PM, Oliver Egginger = wrote: >> Hello, >>=20 >> just my two 'cents': >>=20 >> Terms arises by itself. Just as most people speak of coins when they >> mean bitcoins. I do not see that bitcoin is currently in common use >> except for speculation. Therefore no term for smaller units has >> established yet. No problem in my eyes. Time will tell. >>=20 >> - oliver >>=20 >>=20 >> = --------------------------------------------------------------------------= ---- >> Learn Graph Databases - Download FREE O'Reilly Book >> "Graph Databases" is the definitive new guide to graph databases and = their >> applications. Written by three acclaimed leaders in the field, >> this first edition is now available. Download your free book today! >> http://p.sf.net/sfu/NeoTech >> _______________________________________________ >> Bitcoin-development mailing list >> Bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net >> https://lists.sourceforge.net/lists/listinfo/bitcoin-development >=20 >=20 >=20 > ------------------------------ >=20 > Message: 3 > Date: Sun, 20 Apr 2014 14:32:26 -0500 > From: Gmail > Subject: Re: [Bitcoin-development] "bits": Unit of account > Cc: Bitcoin Development > Message-ID: > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=3D"us-ascii" >=20 > People in the Bitcoin community are sometimes resistant to the idea of = using the word "credit" as a unit of Bitcoin, because Bitcoin is not a = credit-based system.=20 >=20 > However, given that the average person has close to no understanding = of what "credit" means, and probably no concern for the distinction even = if they do know, it may be wise to use the futuristic and easily = understandable "credit" as our human-friendly unit.=20 >=20 > Do others agree that "credits" as a unit of account has a desirable = futuristic connotation? >=20 > Will >=20 > -------------- next part -------------- > A non-text attachment was scrubbed... > Name: smime.p7s > Type: application/pkcs7-signature > Size: 1593 bytes > Desc: not available >=20 > ------------------------------ >=20 > Message: 4 > Date: Sun, 20 Apr 2014 16:28:34 -0400 > From: Mike Caldwell > Subject: Re: [Bitcoin-development] "bits": Unit of account > To: Christophe Biocca > Cc: Bitcoin Development > Message-ID: <4098C706-D67F-474E-9C13-E4C8F56B41ED@swipeclock.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=3D"us-ascii" >=20 > By culturally neutral I mean we avoid deliberately invoking a cultural = reference in the name. For example "satoshi" would be a reference to = Japanese culture just for being a common Japanese name regardless of who = Satoshi turns out to be.=20 >=20 > Mike >=20 > Sent from my iPhone >=20 >> On Apr 20, 2014, at 1:20 PM, "Christophe Biocca" = wrote: >>=20 >> Culturally neutral? "bit" in French phonetically collides with slang >> for phallus ("bitte", with a silent "e"). Apparently it means "louse" >> in Turkish as well. >>=20 >> Not that this really would be avoidable with any short word (all the >> short possible words are usually taken), but it's not neutral. >>=20 >>> On Sun, Apr 20, 2014 at 2:43 PM, Oliver Egginger = wrote: >>> Hello, >>>=20 >>> just my two 'cents': >>>=20 >>> Terms arises by itself. Just as most people speak of coins when they >>> mean bitcoins. I do not see that bitcoin is currently in common use >>> except for speculation. Therefore no term for smaller units has >>> established yet. No problem in my eyes. Time will tell. >>>=20 >>> - oliver >>>=20 >>>=20 >>> = --------------------------------------------------------------------------= ---- >>> Learn Graph Databases - Download FREE O'Reilly Book >>> "Graph Databases" is the definitive new guide to graph databases and = their >>> applications. Written by three acclaimed leaders in the field, >>> this first edition is now available. Download your free book today! >>> http://p.sf.net/sfu/NeoTech >>> _______________________________________________ >>> Bitcoin-development mailing list >>> Bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net >>> https://lists.sourceforge.net/lists/listinfo/bitcoin-development >>=20 >> = --------------------------------------------------------------------------= ---- >> Learn Graph Databases - Download FREE O'Reilly Book >> "Graph Databases" is the definitive new guide to graph databases and = their >> applications. Written by three acclaimed leaders in the field, >> this first edition is now available. Download your free book today! >> http://p.sf.net/sfu/NeoTech >> _______________________________________________ >> Bitcoin-development mailing list >> Bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net >> https://lists.sourceforge.net/lists/listinfo/bitcoin-development >=20 >=20 >=20 > ------------------------------ >=20 > Message: 5 > Date: Sun, 20 Apr 2014 20:16:35 -0400 > From: Justin A > Subject: Re: [Bitcoin-development] "bits": Unit of account > To: Mike Caldwell > Cc: Bitcoin Development > Message-ID: > = > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=3D"utf-8" >=20 > >=20 > What about "ubit", pronounced "YOU-bit", representing 1e-6 bitcoin? = Easy to > say, tied in a visual way to the metric micro, leaves the required 2 > decimal places for the marginally numerate.. What more could one want? >=20 > >=20 > Also, hi. My first post; plan to get involved over the southern = hemisphere > winter if I can learn enough. > On Apr 20, 2014 4:32 PM, "Mike Caldwell" = wrote: >=20 >> By culturally neutral I mean we avoid deliberately invoking a = cultural >> reference in the name. For example "satoshi" would be a reference to >> Japanese culture just for being a common Japanese name regardless of = who >> Satoshi turns out to be. >>=20 >> Mike >>=20 >> Sent from my iPhone >>=20 >>> On Apr 20, 2014, at 1:20 PM, "Christophe Biocca" < >> christophe.biocca@gmail.com> wrote: >>>=20 >>> Culturally neutral? "bit" in French phonetically collides with slang >>> for phallus ("bitte", with a silent "e"). Apparently it means = "louse" >>> in Turkish as well. >>>=20 >>> Not that this really would be avoidable with any short word (all the >>> short possible words are usually taken), but it's not neutral. >>>=20 >>>> On Sun, Apr 20, 2014 at 2:43 PM, Oliver Egginger = >> wrote: >>>> Hello, >>>>=20 >>>> just my two 'cents': >>>>=20 >>>> Terms arises by itself. Just as most people speak of coins when = they >>>> mean bitcoins. I do not see that bitcoin is currently in common use >>>> except for speculation. Therefore no term for smaller units has >>>> established yet. No problem in my eyes. Time will tell. >>>>=20 >>>> - oliver >>>>=20 >>>>=20 >>>>=20 >> = --------------------------------------------------------------------------= ---- >>>> Learn Graph Databases - Download FREE O'Reilly Book >>>> "Graph Databases" is the definitive new guide to graph databases = and >> their >>>> applications. Written by three acclaimed leaders in the field, >>>> this first edition is now available. Download your free book today! >>>> http://p.sf.net/sfu/NeoTech >>>> _______________________________________________ >>>> Bitcoin-development mailing list >>>> Bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net >>>> https://lists.sourceforge.net/lists/listinfo/bitcoin-development >>>=20 >>>=20 >> = --------------------------------------------------------------------------= ---- >>> Learn Graph Databases - Download FREE O'Reilly Book >>> "Graph Databases" is the definitive new guide to graph databases and >> their >>> applications. Written by three acclaimed leaders in the field, >>> this first edition is now available. Download your free book today! >>> http://p.sf.net/sfu/NeoTech >>> _______________________________________________ >>> Bitcoin-development mailing list >>> Bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net >>> https://lists.sourceforge.net/lists/listinfo/bitcoin-development >>=20 >>=20 >> = --------------------------------------------------------------------------= ---- >> Learn Graph Databases - Download FREE O'Reilly Book >> "Graph Databases" is the definitive new guide to graph databases and = their >> applications. Written by three acclaimed leaders in the field, >> this first edition is now available. Download your free book today! >> http://p.sf.net/sfu/NeoTech >> _______________________________________________ >> Bitcoin-development mailing list >> Bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net >> https://lists.sourceforge.net/lists/listinfo/bitcoin-development >>=20 > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... >=20 > ------------------------------ >=20 > = --------------------------------------------------------------------------= ---- > Start Your Social Network Today - Download eXo Platform > Build your Enterprise Intranet with eXo Platform Software > Java Based Open Source Intranet - Social, Extensible, Cloud Ready > Get Started Now And Turn Your Intranet Into A Collaboration Platform > http://p.sf.net/sfu/ExoPlatform >=20 > ------------------------------ >=20 > _______________________________________________ > Bitcoin-development mailing list > Bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net > https://lists.sourceforge.net/lists/listinfo/bitcoin-development >=20 >=20 > End of Bitcoin-development Digest, Vol 35, Issue 72 > *************************************************** --Apple-Mail=_CD22250C-F5BF-46DE-8A3A-8F5B0566D2C1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: attachment; filename="signature.asc" Content-Type: application/pgp-signature; name="signature.asc" Content-Description: Message signed with OpenPGP using GPGMail -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Comment: GPGTools - https://gpgtools.org iQEcBAEBCgAGBQJTVHS2AAoJEFPmse9fNbQlUEgIAIWelOGchgVCsSKdEDFZmKN2 UnrZRhb6KactJYsuPqyOtSaV7OnPgZoh0fv8pNoNXHCf8gnIOk6LseP7wjACfBK9 rVQXCctGTj+OGoparb85H4lbknoHk4vXQl9VjITsXD5BaNJExAJ7aYcFhleIHrxS MYZAwx21vlWcr9HyhfURiIPML2YRpUYjA1oUqSkcnYACKscYaxXhCbVFf4bgM02G izf1eIhi194G8VnTbBubVvkvi526sN1y3t5bjZAWIZLNmYO+qmM2ZzxjbD0xqLce 47m9cSYLC64mf8KZbqVUuleS+TeG81KjdkviOEEWrVyVkeQU0G6kSDJL8ooAzs0= =dhsh -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- --Apple-Mail=_CD22250C-F5BF-46DE-8A3A-8F5B0566D2C1--