Return-Path: Received: from smtp3.osuosl.org (smtp3.osuosl.org [140.211.166.136]) by lists.linuxfoundation.org (Postfix) with ESMTP id C4B98C002D for ; Mon, 11 Jul 2022 17:44:34 +0000 (UTC) Received: from localhost (localhost [127.0.0.1]) by smtp3.osuosl.org (Postfix) with ESMTP id 90EDC60F3C for ; Mon, 11 Jul 2022 17:44:34 +0000 (UTC) DKIM-Filter: OpenDKIM Filter v2.11.0 smtp3.osuosl.org 90EDC60F3C Authentication-Results: smtp3.osuosl.org; dkim=pass (2048-bit key) header.d=chia.net header.i=@chia.net header.a=rsa-sha256 header.s=google header.b=ogh/H/L4 X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-new at osuosl.org X-Spam-Flag: NO X-Spam-Score: -2.099 X-Spam-Level: X-Spam-Status: No, score=-2.099 tagged_above=-999 required=5 tests=[BAYES_00=-1.9, DKIM_SIGNED=0.1, DKIM_VALID=-0.1, DKIM_VALID_AU=-0.1, DKIM_VALID_EF=-0.1, HTML_MESSAGE=0.001, RCVD_IN_DNSWL_NONE=-0.0001, SPF_HELO_NONE=0.001, SPF_PASS=-0.001] autolearn=ham autolearn_force=no Received: from smtp3.osuosl.org ([127.0.0.1]) by localhost (smtp3.osuosl.org [127.0.0.1]) (amavisd-new, port 10024) with ESMTP id YrQqjO65d3Qt for ; Mon, 11 Jul 2022 17:44:34 +0000 (UTC) X-Greylist: whitelisted by SQLgrey-1.8.0 DKIM-Filter: OpenDKIM Filter v2.11.0 smtp3.osuosl.org CDEF460E1A Received: from mail-yw1-x1132.google.com (mail-yw1-x1132.google.com [IPv6:2607:f8b0:4864:20::1132]) by smtp3.osuosl.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id CDEF460E1A for ; Mon, 11 Jul 2022 17:44:33 +0000 (UTC) Received: by mail-yw1-x1132.google.com with SMTP id 00721157ae682-31caffa4a45so57016967b3.3 for ; Mon, 11 Jul 2022 10:44:33 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=chia.net; s=google; h=mime-version:references:in-reply-to:from:date:message-id:subject:to :cc; bh=mBzcCU++ZIPSa7ErG3HMkjk28BTzdX5Mf/tEru2GN/4=; b=ogh/H/L4ec0pBr46wGM6sNSs+84vgg0uLnx19szmzD3xhyikePBIdJr2c0yrcJV8bV pEHWvyzgc8Pcpxb1/+vvDs1X5ubN7U+3ffYSRndLX9KtiLE/ozKswnj/StD4OKGWNnRZ Ni+MTjaB0cHKkVEHmZniGMSdNrhmL2XHU0VN2MwxC+V3cij0aSz0+b6ow1Mso3ANkFX6 t9Gukf9X/XlCHnKzmAolJOzNI6SbarjPNB1GjKQ04i/orESiB/XZvB9UT3crVGn5V7nC kSbeWXiNc69fdz4JQ8dS7Ugc9HHtgn8DVfXI9SwFnAj+bGWiAF4l9Q3XSZMJ3w8GvuFa 84hQ== X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20210112; h=x-gm-message-state:mime-version:references:in-reply-to:from:date :message-id:subject:to:cc; bh=mBzcCU++ZIPSa7ErG3HMkjk28BTzdX5Mf/tEru2GN/4=; b=TPu774fmlWrEwVLCOvOrlmdEAmprcoX0qFo7ucLg6zUk15LV5fythp8WYT/fiiMmqm ackTpmQW864dOGmlr23ajoxflw916OR4nWA96cYtabGKw+rK64QdLiwkCE+Atj5ICbEQ i3onwpvOWj7HqStUwB+/yEDdIoF9HvLccITBjJI5masieSNMHh9Ntf7r3rCDwYBmXHPl CuYNkPl704AGm4fOFFbRSi3K4KfzRm2uGrJJ+g2Repm6HdQT/B//xlwEEe5EEc4EDPWp Ujr7C6ZpymNGna7BU4QizXQyNBVbrKLogC/l6X9JEOYVq08TPIw59yYUPXn31ErTQ5HL CaHg== X-Gm-Message-State: AJIora+zM20e5zDZRx3ZcuFM89Uzdit+reuIh0mf6XPk41ShaDYOSgaQ tqtVdrK7+/6TxlmuHwH6sVZ1J/c29w6PWqevXMFX+Q== X-Google-Smtp-Source: AGRyM1u0ioACZMHL42xCgtzwPMkxu0SHTTHvB8PaE3NIJP6wiT2qWFjw320FA4qMwBGCSSlIuzufwGqh+tDOAdHNVeE= X-Received: by 2002:a81:1914:0:b0:31c:e12a:f33a with SMTP id 20-20020a811914000000b0031ce12af33amr20805595ywz.209.1657561472674; Mon, 11 Jul 2022 10:44:32 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: <20220711023247.GA21856@erisian.com.au> In-Reply-To: From: Bram Cohen Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2022 10:44:21 -0700 Message-ID: To: Peter Todd , Bitcoin Protocol Discussion Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000c5c97c05e38b1a76" X-Mailman-Approved-At: Mon, 11 Jul 2022 18:12:27 +0000 Cc: Anthony Towns Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Surprisingly, Tail Emission Is Not Inflationary X-BeenThere: bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.15 Precedence: list List-Id: Bitcoin Protocol Discussion List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2022 17:44:34 -0000 --000000000000c5c97c05e38b1a76 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" On Mon, Jul 11, 2022 at 10:00 AM Peter Todd via bitcoin-dev < bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote: > > If you actually do the numbers on this, you'll realize it takes absolutely > catastrophic black swan events that make WW2 look like a minor conflict to > make > even insignificant inflation rate changes due to changes in lost coins. > That somewhat depends on what you mean by 'significant' and 'catastrophic' but I believe the way the model goes is that if X% of coins are lost that means that the value of all outstanding coins will go up by X%, and if the rate of breakage goes from Y% annually to Y*Z% annually then the value of all coins will go up by a factor of Z. This is of course an idealized model in steady state, but gives some idea of scale. --000000000000c5c97c05e38b1a76 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
On Mon, Jul 11, 2022 at 10:00 AM Peter To= dd via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:

If you actually do the numbers on this, you'll realize it takes absolut= ely
catastrophic black swan events that make WW2 look like a minor conflict to = make
even insignificant inflation rate changes due to changes in lost coins.
=

That somewhat depends on what you mean by = 'significant' and 'catastrophic' but I believe the way the = model goes is that if X% of coins are lost that means that the value of all= outstanding coins will go up by X%, and if the rate of breakage goes from = Y% annually to Y*Z% annually then the value of all coins will go up by a fa= ctor of Z. This is of course an idealized model in steady state, but gives = some idea of scale.=C2=A0
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