Return-Path: Received: from smtp1.linuxfoundation.org (smtp1.linux-foundation.org [172.17.192.35]) by mail.linuxfoundation.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 39AD6BB3 for ; Wed, 15 Jul 2015 23:16:23 +0000 (UTC) X-Greylist: whitelisted by SQLgrey-1.7.6 Received: from mail-pd0-f181.google.com (mail-pd0-f181.google.com [209.85.192.181]) by smtp1.linuxfoundation.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id D97B5280 for ; Wed, 15 Jul 2015 23:16:22 +0000 (UTC) Received: by pdrg1 with SMTP id g1so32701225pdr.2 for ; Wed, 15 Jul 2015 16:16:22 -0700 (PDT) X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20130820; h=x-gm-message-state:message-id:date:from:user-agent:mime-version:to :subject:references:in-reply-to:content-type :content-transfer-encoding; bh=M2rQSeG99V6bamHa1bGJEIQFk5nDLsW7KuhE66joF/I=; b=Rx5Tuo/jfRF0J1tsH26tWQNI7rsVJt02FQgOP8/jEGq7lwhKnSPbqhes5BS2uPkjNf S4k9tIUfSMx9GwOK4Jh/3jzv16nQRhWqAkFz+J51Y6aJ/QhnbmpaoNndS8Nx1OAMP/8S 29bRU5wBPTtCzu8grUnKM5qVzHz7iYG4CvLBt4mrL70Vh5q6OpUsXsYulq83crK5BcCD N5es8+5x6dWpDWWwUnMaqn3Dh2JMMdtzc1zBzmUrVDtEsu8HRRcp9PXP8caCFIl9TDdF A0hZMDL0r+pRz8591U0XjHzU/jx8sV09+8b9f+uyJ3HlrJS6lo03qwo43e647kF5edYC WIcw== X-Gm-Message-State: ALoCoQkKABQXpqmKDqjrXXOhG0ByzbG70eTGOxWoObMCu2t1kot/Y7XiIffW4MA2UlN/ffhGu+xp X-Received: by 10.70.128.34 with SMTP id nl2mr12691774pdb.43.1437002182502; Wed, 15 Jul 2015 16:16:22 -0700 (PDT) Received: from [10.100.1.239] ([204.58.254.99]) by smtp.googlemail.com with ESMTPSA id b10sm5757436pdo.84.2015.07.15.16.16.20 for (version=TLSv1.2 cipher=ECDHE-RSA-AES128-GCM-SHA256 bits=128/128); Wed, 15 Jul 2015 16:16:21 -0700 (PDT) Message-ID: <55A6E98C.3090307@thinlink.com> Date: Wed, 15 Jul 2015 16:15:24 -0700 From: Tom Harding User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 6.1; WOW64; rv:31.0) Gecko/20100101 Thunderbird/31.7.0 MIME-Version: 1.0 To: bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org References: <55A5A837.1090203@thinlink.com> <2272402.KPsXmgHuuj@coldstorage> In-Reply-To: <2272402.KPsXmgHuuj@coldstorage> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=windows-1252; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Spam-Status: No, score=-1.8 required=5.0 tests=BAYES_00,RCVD_IN_DNSWL_LOW, RCVD_IN_SORBS_WEB autolearn=ham version=3.3.1 X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.3.1 (2010-03-16) on smtp1.linux-foundation.org Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Mempool "Expected Byte Stay" policy X-BeenThere: bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.12 Precedence: list List-Id: Bitcoin Development Discussion List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 15 Jul 2015 23:16:23 -0000 On 7/15/2015 12:18 PM, Thomas Zander via bitcoin-dev wrote: > On Tuesday 14. July 2015 17.24.23 Tom Harding via bitcoin-dev wrote: >> Rule 2: A transaction and its dependents are evicted on its 2-hour >> anniversary, whether space is required or not > Instead of 2 hours, why not a number of blocks? So users/wallets can know when they should rebroadcast and consider increasing the fee. Using 12 blocks, there is a 5% chance he has to wait 3 hours.* Using 120 minutes, there is only a .23% chance that fewer than 4 blocks have occurred.** * Table[{x, 1 - CDF[ErlangDistribution[12, 1/10], x]}, {x, 0, 240, 10}] //N //TableForm 0. 1. 10. 1. 20. 0.999999 30. 0.999929 40. 0.999085 50. 0.994547 60. 0.979908 70. 0.94665 80. 0.888076 90. 0.803008 100. 0.696776 110. 0.579267 120. 0.461597 130. 0.353165 140. 0.26004 150. 0.184752 160. 0.126993 170. 0.0846691 180. 0.0548874 190. 0.0346726 200. 0.0213868 210. 0.0129048 220. 0.00762994 230. 0.00442702 240. 0.00252413 ** Table[{x, CDF[PoissonDistribution[1/10 * 120], x]}, {x, 0, 20}] //N //TableForm 0. 6.14421*10^-6 1. 0.0000798748 2. 0.000522258 3. 0.00229179 4. 0.00760039 5. 0.020341 6. 0.0458223 7. 0.0895045 8. 0.155028 9. 0.242392 10. 0.347229 11. 0.461597 12. 0.575965 13. 0.681536 14. 0.772025 15. 0.844416 16. 0.898709 17. 0.937034 18. 0.962584 19. 0.97872 20. 0.988402