Return-Path: Received: from smtp1.linuxfoundation.org (smtp1.linux-foundation.org [172.17.192.35]) by mail.linuxfoundation.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id BA44972A for ; Fri, 24 Jul 2015 01:17:57 +0000 (UTC) X-Greylist: whitelisted by SQLgrey-1.7.6 Received: from mail-wi0-f170.google.com (mail-wi0-f170.google.com [209.85.212.170]) by smtp1.linuxfoundation.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 40ACE12A for ; Fri, 24 Jul 2015 01:17:57 +0000 (UTC) Received: by wicmv11 with SMTP id mv11so45571410wic.0 for ; Thu, 23 Jul 2015 18:17:56 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=20120113; h=user-agent:in-reply-to:references:mime-version :content-transfer-encoding:content-type:subject:from:date:to:cc :message-id; bh=UlLLSG9RR/qoLeRnXVfUGtTXNprvFNQ0/aH0Ybus6PY=; b=SpBzYeN0qTI0PlE/UXpdxQ2csgMaoiNtg42H+SMdXj79FnjLXgY7kjX+Wi/A61muzI oeFzubXu8hhaG08N/AtovOcZbKJLxP2nVNuoqokrPr70fz1QXTPgwgyyJR+xnaUb/nbq UFYh29Zx8LHBKpBcM3kAXoaQsIAKUCXJTtQ0LHRXwFm83DsMNzumTHzcO41D9ou/RyYJ OV0h5Kq9EfEL1jPs9DjVqZWANAsTwwTxyBi+elsnCbszDU+3mecaI7gMG1qaZSCl6xdG z177cV3UGljRwjs98/RprNewcdwmOMmVjIs6uH8XfExyAAscX6uui0KX6wmjdmLmZgeQ Xo7w== X-Received: by 10.180.10.200 with SMTP id k8mr1997568wib.5.1437700676095; Thu, 23 Jul 2015 18:17:56 -0700 (PDT) Received: from [10.100.178.156] (tor-exit1.arbitrary.ch. [78.46.51.124]) by smtp.gmail.com with ESMTPSA id ec19sm5652338wic.0.2015.07.23.18.17.50 (version=TLSv1.2 cipher=ECDHE-RSA-RC4-SHA bits=128/128); Thu, 23 Jul 2015 18:17:54 -0700 (PDT) User-Agent: K-9 Mail for Android In-Reply-To: References: <20150723162321.Horde.bphh__8AhyXa_m-YAYpiyw1@server47.web-hosting.com> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 From: Gareth Williams Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2015 11:17:34 +1000 To: Tier Nolan , Tier Nolan via bitcoin-dev Message-ID: X-Spam-Status: No, score=-2.7 required=5.0 tests=BAYES_00,DKIM_SIGNED, DKIM_VALID, DKIM_VALID_AU, FREEMAIL_FROM, RCVD_IN_DNSWL_LOW autolearn=ham version=3.3.1 X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.3.1 (2010-03-16) on smtp1.linux-foundation.org Cc: "bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] BIP draft: Hardfork bit X-BeenThere: bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.12 Precedence: list List-Id: Bitcoin Development Discussion List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2015 01:17:57 -0000 -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE----- Hash: SHA512 >I don't understand the situation here. Is the assumption of a group of >miners suddenly switching (for example, they realise that they didn't >intend to support the new rules)? Or they're economically rational miners, and a large difficulty decrease on the original chain, without an equally large decrease in the value of original chain tokens, has made it profitable to switch? It's dangerous to assume all miners will continue to support the side they have initially signaled. They're only invested in the chain they mine for a short time (until coinbase maturity.) If both sides if a fork retain value you'd expect mining to redistribute itself WRT short term profitability at every difficulty adjustment, irrespective of initially signaled support for the fork. -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Version: APG v1.1.1 iQFABAEBCgAqBQJVsZIuIxxHYXJldGggV2lsbGlhbXMgPGdhY3J1eEBnbWFpbC5j b20+AAoJEEY5w2E3jkVEN7YIAIlgaAahHCssIEXYzqB1gRKYRP4fPsq8NtOMrkki dc1gfKmprlPDShFvu2Hn5L8amP51ouRpmDSJwNyU//1DyU5p1tcWTAtkHr6SY7TY uJtcPMM03BUD2i3rXSY4FbpWn8aOoUnQrkYFhx5Y/Aru+l47C0I5KF4fgMag7FhI RxkTFylvq7uWvu0QCUkVh1MgohNxMqIGAvE5t8yoj5LxrNzOq95TcOGwFngWCdJM a5BADFjq7v4j/+cP748ZTPcLUusTQTwEuIsCIhpwwiKADsy1FKjmAdHhKTff/6wn cpNYvwimKNSSESCwzAnxekaJCTXpEOWQV7/6FO9vJbTMKw8= =/hJk -----END PGP SIGNATURE-----