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From: =?UTF-8?B?Sm9yZ2UgVGltw7Nu?= <jtimon@jtimon.cc>
Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2017 17:06:01 +0200
Message-ID: <CABm2gDoS0eiiabxbfQc4Cc7Jqk-XfDDL6QdGhDn-TzrDpd8Hfw@mail.gmail.com>
To: Jacob Eliosoff <jacob.eliosoff@gmail.com>
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Cc: Bitcoin Dev <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] The BIP148 chain split may be inevitable
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> I believe that means 80% of hashrate would need to be running BIP91 (signaling bit 4) by ~June 30 (so BIP91 locks in ~July 13, activates ~July 27), not "a few days ago" as I claimed.  So, tight timing, but not impossible.

This is not needed, if segwit is locked in by aug 1 (with or without
bip91), no split will happen even if segwit is not active yet.
So the hashrate majority could avoid the split that way (or adopting bip148).

But it doesn't seem like they are planning to do this (with or without
bip91), the last thing I've heard, it's they will wait until
"immediately" before they signal sw (but there must be some language
barrier here, perhaps "immediately" and "inmediatamente" are false
friends). The reason why they will wait until "immediately" instead of
just starting to signal sw today, it's still unclear to me.

The other way to prevent the split is if bip148 users abort bip148
deployment, but unfortunately that seems increasingly unlikely.