Date: Fri, 16 Apr 2021 03:39:27 +0000
To: Prayank <prayank@tutanota.de>,
 Bitcoin Protocol Discussion <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
From: ZmnSCPxj <ZmnSCPxj@protonmail.com>
Reply-To: ZmnSCPxj <ZmnSCPxj@protonmail.com>
Message-ID: <y8Kg6O56gsHAibyZ_UbVSFVWXtS-77wg7H-KKhpDfL-CdGyt7KaZ5y9RDhU7kdgr8JDfkQjTtbkm4vX8UMnxAhSs0nKdt8yFhpfZmc-JBLU=@protonmail.com>
In-Reply-To: <MXhivQp----2@tutanota.de>
References: <MXhivQp----2@tutanota.de>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Prediction Markets and Bitcoin
Precedence: list

Good morning Prayank,


> I think prediction markets or such tokens might help in adding to the inf=
ormation we already have however they don't decide or replace anything. Bit=
coin development should impact such markets and not the other way around.=
=C2=A0

"Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competi=
tion for limited resources remains a constant. Need as well as greed have f=
ollowed us to the stars, and the rewards of wealth still await those wise e=
nough to recognize this deep thrumming of our common pulse. " -- CEO Nwabud=
ike Morgan, "The Centauri Monopoly", *Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri*

This is the tension between the necessary freedom of discovering strange ne=
w techniques, and the exigencies of life, where every joule of negentropy i=
s a carefully measured resource.

Of course development must be free to do what is best technically, and to e=
xperiment and see what other techniques are possible or workable.
Thus the market must follow development.

Of course the people ultimately funding the development must impose what di=
rection that development goes to, after all, it is their money that is bein=
g modified.
Thus development must follow the market.

It is the negotiation of the two that is difficult.

Overall, I think a lot of the developer arguments are reasonably clear --- =
what is unclear is what the market wants, thus I think prediction markets a=
re something that are needed in order for the negotiation between these two=
 aspects to advance.

Regards,
ZmnSCPxj