Return-Path: Received: from smtp4.osuosl.org (smtp4.osuosl.org [IPv6:2605:bc80:3010::137]) by lists.linuxfoundation.org (Postfix) with ESMTP id 57922C002D for ; Wed, 18 Jan 2023 20:58:13 +0000 (UTC) Received: from localhost (localhost [127.0.0.1]) by smtp4.osuosl.org (Postfix) with ESMTP id 390AD418D8 for ; Wed, 18 Jan 2023 20:58:13 +0000 (UTC) DKIM-Filter: OpenDKIM Filter v2.11.0 smtp4.osuosl.org 390AD418D8 Authentication-Results: smtp4.osuosl.org; dkim=pass (2048-bit key, unprotected) header.d=messagingengine.com header.i=@messagingengine.com header.a=rsa-sha256 header.s=fm3 header.b=iQzrIDk1 X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-new at osuosl.org X-Spam-Flag: NO X-Spam-Score: -2.603 X-Spam-Level: X-Spam-Status: No, score=-2.603 tagged_above=-999 required=5 tests=[BAYES_00=-1.9, DKIM_SIGNED=0.1, DKIM_VALID=-0.1, RCVD_IN_DNSWL_LOW=-0.7, RCVD_IN_MSPIKE_H2=-0.001, SPF_HELO_PASS=-0.001, SPF_PASS=-0.001] autolearn=ham autolearn_force=no Received: from smtp4.osuosl.org ([127.0.0.1]) by localhost (smtp4.osuosl.org [127.0.0.1]) (amavisd-new, port 10024) with ESMTP id BCt1RY2bW14n for ; Wed, 18 Jan 2023 20:58:11 +0000 (UTC) X-Greylist: domain auto-whitelisted by SQLgrey-1.8.0 DKIM-Filter: OpenDKIM Filter v2.11.0 smtp4.osuosl.org C7ED2418B8 Received: from wout2-smtp.messagingengine.com (wout2-smtp.messagingengine.com [64.147.123.25]) by smtp4.osuosl.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id C7ED2418B8 for ; Wed, 18 Jan 2023 20:58:10 +0000 (UTC) Received: from compute2.internal (compute2.nyi.internal [10.202.2.46]) by mailout.west.internal (Postfix) with ESMTP id 7C1E7320095A; Wed, 18 Jan 2023 15:58:09 -0500 (EST) Received: from mailfrontend1 ([10.202.2.162]) by compute2.internal (MEProxy); Wed, 18 Jan 2023 15:58:09 -0500 DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d= messagingengine.com; h=cc:cc:content-type:date:date:feedback-id :feedback-id:from:from:in-reply-to:in-reply-to:message-id :mime-version:references:reply-to:sender:subject:subject:to:to :x-me-proxy:x-me-proxy:x-me-sender:x-me-sender:x-sasl-enc; s= fm3; t=1674075489; x=1674161889; bh=THzfEdOyL8MrnAfC6H5Z20gW4XAP lBPhQgIN/3Bz++E=; b=iQzrIDk1ORR+TKpQpGDNi0q+FQTHdeS84pFB0SPrb21d C92R0SksqzjWrzo9c/X1Zt5CKKbfS60lYpQlMhAM/ICvD1EEu3dd81zYzf0a30ds hTyM3HFxjELZUjYgSVL9Ps6nijK3hrEYBhuM7zGXhhj+5S8qrsAfw952m7VrbzO2 /XuNRIus/cxOTdNN406P3Xz4piz7zxI/vU/aDO7imfy9KEs2DAMksDi3nrVcF+7U DFviTu6whxZ7tX4Se6PlD4mryR95kWhrvht8OleCBI+L1JpWh51uIiEQIUBv329W Ru1KkKdzAGIsPJaHYlVRZyY0qtgS4FxQDDoO6/Y/Iw== X-ME-Sender: X-ME-Received: X-ME-Proxy-Cause: gggruggvucftvghtrhhoucdtuddrgedvhedruddtkedgudegvdcutefuodetggdotefrod ftvfcurfhrohhfihhlvgemucfhrghsthforghilhdpqfgfvfdpuffrtefokffrpgfnqfgh necuuegrihhlohhuthemuceftddtnecusecvtfgvtghiphhivghnthhsucdlqddutddtmd enucfjughrpeffhffvvefukfhfgggtuggjsehgtderredttddvnecuhfhrohhmpefrvght vghrucfvohguugcuoehpvghtvgesphgvthgvrhhtohguugdrohhrgheqnecuggftrfgrth htvghrnhepledvleelffdtudekudffjefgfeejueehieelfedtgfetudetgeegveeutefh jedtnecuffhomhgrihhnpehpvghtvghrthhouggurdhorhhgnecuvehluhhsthgvrhfuih iivgeptdenucfrrghrrghmpehmrghilhhfrhhomhepphgvthgvsehpvghtvghrthhouggu rdhorhhg X-ME-Proxy: Feedback-ID: i525146e8:Fastmail Received: by mail.messagingengine.com (Postfix) with ESMTPA; Wed, 18 Jan 2023 15:58:08 -0500 (EST) Received: by localhost (Postfix, from userid 1000) id 3168F5F85A; Wed, 18 Jan 2023 15:58:07 -0500 (EST) Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2023 15:58:07 -0500 From: Peter Todd To: Alfie John Message-ID: References: <173552838-a7412589a40ea770709d0b227b056bd3@pmq5v.m5r2.onet> <2480C772-EE75-4350-BF11-FA9FEFC8A4EA@alfie.wtf> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/signed; micalg=pgp-sha512; protocol="application/pgp-signature"; boundary="WGNU1Usz+uWXAqdN" Content-Disposition: inline In-Reply-To: <2480C772-EE75-4350-BF11-FA9FEFC8A4EA@alfie.wtf> Cc: Bitcoin Protocol Discussion Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Pseudocode for robust tail emission X-BeenThere: bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.15 Precedence: list List-Id: Bitcoin Protocol Discussion List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2023 20:58:13 -0000 --WGNU1Usz+uWXAqdN Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Disposition: inline Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable On Sun, Jan 01, 2023 at 11:42:50PM +1100, Alfie John wrote: > On 31 Dec 2022, at 10:28 am, Peter Todd via bitcoin-dev wrote: > >=20 > >> This way: > >>=20 > >> 1. system cannot be played > >> 2. only in case of destructive halving: system waits for the recovery = of network security > >=20 > > The immediate danger we have with halvings is that in a competitive mar= ket, > > profit margins tend towards marginal costs - the cost to produce an add= itional > > unit of production - rather than total costs - the cost necessary to re= cover > > prior and future expenses. Since the halving is a sudden shock to the s= ystem, > > under the right conditions we could have a significant amount of hashin= g power > > just barely able to afford to hash prior to the halving, resulting in a= ll that > > hashing power immediately having to shut down and fees increasing drama= tically, > > and likely, chaotically. Your proposal does not address that problem a= s it can > > only measure difficulty prior to the halving point. >=20 >=20 > > ... Since the halving is a sudden shock to the system >=20 > Is it though? Since everyone knows of the possible outcomes, wouldn't a p= ossible halving be priced in?=20 Re-read that I said. That explains why despite the halving being a forseeab= le event, there's no mechanism to "price it in" when it comes to hashing power. > > resulting in all that hashing power immediately having to shut down and= fees increasing dramatically >=20 > Which should cause that hashing power to come back because of this fee in= creases. Right now the total reward per transaction is $63, three orders of magnitude higher than typical fees. Sufficient fee increases to bring back hashing po= wer in a scenario like that would cause enormous disruption to many things, including Lightning channels. --=20 https://petertodd.org 'peter'[:-1]@petertodd.org --WGNU1Usz+uWXAqdN Content-Type: application/pgp-signature; name="signature.asc" -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- iQIzBAEBCgAdFiEE0RcYcKRzsEwFZ3N5Lly11TVRLzcFAmPIXVwACgkQLly11TVR LzcT2BAAsRCqsusGlp9nRxO6yAlYIeH1MA1EETJ6jsNh+UhyfBKcpKhiWT0HsI9F Xs+Ku/MHrpgNk02ayC7qgP3IxGRxvHRzNeqm6vXzmTzBM8LgXFmiHQhN2H23pEV5 i3lr7Y+UrR2O7FA9zVcrj9Q6JLAn6fj0/MixPUPUjA/VitNlJFvnqBMufg4l9UHb Q7PD7t29D55GDxqJXuFjI+ZIpCaQsTx5Xvl9V/bsGaWmN4JyVy5KF9SXgv3B0zvY RBBls+PpsQy/pDRfIqUZ+OGhpBrVdOcMp/v1R1Tm0BHZQYnZidmHhL90P8opzHqY DPhSwDEbzPbsoWGlgQPZHUbcrwxntpVXL4JGFzT0DvSM3L+cRofBMC0603TS6GQg uYX5v8x7+RqLekHJePgAStiwW69gBnt5nmYiyw4MAz0IirxacmVbAu9FZMsRWw0m TqdN+Zoy2ZcIZLfA3ZRI2yaPYfwZeAZjYASjocINxLUrZ1hy+QJAmv2O1oueU4Qd uNYimaaaEgMc5hLOSfT55frp5rfZJhs6XIVAHaLEVmT9tFmeot7Th5HPKzxDL+dA FKR+rsOuKlTDcceGhng3PkQ1Q8iK5FOfhPICfKLrOFgg6KsjvNaqE1blOUruNP27 Ph5j8spBp2skmTXsn3KrKQql6zDrPM88pXN0EPIYuADAdRm/FVc= =412q -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- --WGNU1Usz+uWXAqdN--