RE: Shooting room paradox

Hal Finney (hal@rain.org)
Fri, 6 Dec 1996 09:23:45 -0800

David Musick and Richard Brodie have said that, if they found themselves
in the shooting room, they would be willing to bet that the dice won't
roll double sixes. In fact David wants odds in his favor(!).

I wonder if they and others will agree, though, that this is a losing
strategy for most people who follow it. Suppose that as we run the
experiment, every person in the room turns to their neighbor and makes
this bet. One person in each pair bets that the dice will come up
double sixes, while the other bets that they will not. (We make sure
there are an even number of people in the room each time.)

At the end of the experiment, 90% of the people who bet that the dice
will come up double sixes will have won, while only 10% who bet the way
David and Richard advise will have won. Their advice is a loser for 90%
of the people who follow it.

Does everyone agree on this?

Hal