Lee Daniel Crocker wrote:
> I don't doubt that your EV from these trades, and every trade you
> make, is probably very high. But as a poker player I have to say that
> regularly putting 5% of your bankroll on a single bet--even if every
> bet has positive expectation--produces an uncomfotably high probability
> of ruin. My poker expectation is about 2 bets per hour; but I have
> upswings and downswings of 100 bets now and then. It's not uncommon
> for pros to have bad _months_. Things generally level out at the
> months-to-years level, but you better have the bankroll to outlast
> those swings. I keep track of my play and can quote you both expectation
> and variance (19!). Do you have similar stats for your trading?
>
> --
> Lee Daniel Crocker <lee@piclab.com> <http://www.piclab.com/lcrocker.html>
> "All inventions or works of authorship original to me, herein and past,
> are placed irrevocably in the public domain, and may be used or modified
> for any purpose, without permission, attribution, or notification."--LDC
Lee,
I do not have the stats you ask about for my trading.
The poker analogy is not an accurate one for several reasons.
I'll let you know when I get some numbers that might be of interest.
Lee
Lee