----- Original Message -----
From: Anders Sandberg <asa@nada.kth.se>
To: <transhuman@logrus.org>
Sent: Monday, December 03, 2001 2:15 PM
Subject: Re: >H CFP: Heterodox Economics Conference
> Transhuman Mailing List
>
> On Mon, Dec 03, 2001 at 03:21:21PM -0500, Technotranscendence wrote:
> > Transhuman Mailing List
> >
> > It'd be nice to see Extropian or transhumanist economics in there somewhere.
> ...
> > 4th ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE ASSOCIATION OF HETERODOX ECONOMICS
> >
> > 9-10 JULY 2002 Dublin, Republic of Ireland
> >
> > All economists are encouraged to come together and hear a
> > diversity of papers on topics not well represented in mainstream
> > economics. Papers from a plurality of perspectives and topic
> > areas are encouraged -- for example, Post Keynesian Economics,
> > Marxian Economics, Labour Process Theory, Institutional
> > Economics, Feminist Economics, Evolutionary Economics...
>
> Is it just me, or is this going to mainly attract nutty economics?
Well, its not just you. Most "mainstream economists"- Marxians, Keynesians, Neo-Keynesians, etc. are necessarily 'nutty', as these
kinds of theories are consistently refuted by the experimental evidence. ("Feminist Economics" sounds like a Marxian polylogist
spinoff. I've never heard of it before). It's sort of like a giant Stanford Experiment- those willing to forgo rationation and
regurgitate the Party line (e.g.the State cares about you, counterfeiting money is good, mommy.gov knows best) are rewarded. Some
even get Nobel prizes for introducing new epicycles.
http://www.mises.org/humanaction/chap3sec1.asp
An example of Ptolemaic monetary theory, from a Sept 2001 publication of a Federal Reserve bank-
"...
(1) Yg|t=a*Yg|(t -1)+b*E|t*(Yg|(t+1))- c*[R|t- E|t*( p|(t+1))]+x|t
[plus two other equations in r*, z|t, etc. in this system. z|t means "z subscript t"]
"where Yg|t equals the output gap (the percentage
point difference between actual and potential
output), R equals nominal interest rate, r* equals
equilibrium real interest rate, p equals inflation, p|T
equals inflation target, x and z are stochastic
shocks, and all the coefficients are positive...."
Rearranging terms, we have:
x|t=Yg|t-a*Yg|(t -1)-b*E|t*(Yg|(t+1))+ c*[R|t- E|t*( p|(t+1))]
which could then be used to predict that mysterious "stochastic shock".
An engineer using Newton's laws of motion might be tempted to make an adjustment to
F=ma
(force identifies with mass time acceleration), say to
F=m/v + x|t
(force is mass divided by velocity plus some mysterious, time-dependent "stochastic shock")
Other engineers would consider this individual to be a nut case, of course.
Speaking of "stochastic shocks" and the partial predictability of human action-
a prediction from November 7, 2000-
" Banks [in the US] may take another little "holiday"- meaning depositors cannot withdraw, as in the 1930's and 1980's S&L debacle.
This would be done in part to put a brake on price-hyperinflation, at the little guy's expense of course (science!)."
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/
"Banking restrictions decreed by President Fernando de la Rúa on Saturday [December 1, 2001] come into effect today. The President
and Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo said on national television last night the measures were taken to fight "an enormous
speculative attack" against Argentina."
That's right, blame anybody else besides the guys running the nuclear-powered currency-printing press.
http://www.mises.org/humanaction/chap17sec16.asp
http://www.mises.org/humanaction/chap17sec17.asp
"...These were designed to stop a bank run which on Friday seemed to be leading to financial collapse. "We have come out to defend
ourselves," said De la Rúa in a three-minute TV address. "National unity is today more important than ever." ...The measures include
a 250-peso or dollar cap on the funds account holders can withdraw in cash every week. "I apologize because I know many of you
became scared by the measures. But we are doing this to defend your savings..."
Um hmmm...
http://www.mises.org/humanaction/chap31sec4.asp
"...Economists, businessmen and analysts were not so optimistic. "If there's one sector that benefits from this, it's banks," said
Rafael Ber, an analyst for Argentine Research consultancy. .... "There will be a ferocious decline in local economic activity."
"These measures constitute an inadmissible infringement of property rights and they bring us one step closer to a 'hyper-recession'
," the Argentine business group CAME said in a statement. (Herald staff with news agencies) "
http://www.mises.org/humanaction/chap27sec4.asp
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/story.jsp?story=108003
"Passengers on planes and ships were frisked for illegal dollar stashes before leaving the country. The decree sparked fears of an
imminent devaluation of the peso, wiping out savings overnight. The run on the banks was only the latest sign that the financial
crisis that has rocked Latin America's third-largest economy for the past four years shows no signs of abating."
http://www.mises.org/humanaction/chap17sec8.asp
> Sure,
> some of the groups are not that weird (like Austrian Economics, which I
> have a hard time viewing as reallt heterodox), but how do you judge the
> quality of abstracts when their methods, epistemology and quite possibly
> their entire metaphysics is up to the submitter to define?
>
...
> Perhaps a better perspective would be "transhumanist economics =
> economics seen from the perspective of continuing, dynamist, radical
> change". The economy is changing *together* with society, culture,
> technology and humanity, and the goal of transhumanist economy is to
> analyse how this change behaves. It would naturally have to be
> transdisciplinary, and it is likely extremely hard to do much
> quantitative economics this way, but there might be valuable qualitative
> insights in a perspective that tried to look at how economies behave
> when they are constantly forced by internal and external factors to
> adapt and evolve. Or have I just reinvented one of the [theories of economics] on the
> call for submission list above?
It is part and parcel of Austrian School thinking. As for "quantitave economics", when you see an equation with e.g GDP or K (for
total capital) in it, and even first and second derivatives of same, be advised you are looking at the result of poor thinking.
http://www.mises.org/humanaction/chap12sec2.asp
Cheers,
Forrest
-- Forrest Bishop Chairman, Institute of Atomic-Scale Engineering www.iase.cc
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