Robin Hanson wrote:
> >If postbio and bio intelligences all belong to the same reference
The complaint that Leslie is refering to is that the reference class
should not be unduely *narrowed*, that it would be wrong to leave out
the pre-Neanderthal people. What you are saying is that the reference
class should not be *widened* to include postbios. So why do you say
that you object in exactly the same way as Leslie envisions? As far
as I know, Leslie has never considered ruling out postbios from the
reference class on the ground that they would be too different.
> >class (just as tall people and short people, black and white etc.)
> >then the fact that you find yourself being a bio intel. would
> >indicate that the postbios don't vastly outnumber the bios.
> >
> >Whether postbios and bios should be in the same reference class is
> >not clear. That's a deep problem, and I suspect but am not yet
> >certain that there might be some kind of loophole for the
> >transhumanist here, if the postbios are fundamentally different from
> >bios.
>
> I reread Leslies book on this issue last night, and object to
> putting bios and postbios into the same ref class in exactly the way
> that Leslie envisions one might object:
>
> It might perhaps be complained that making the reference class into
> humans-after-splitting-away-from-Neanderthals would be coming too
> near to imitating the man who makes his reference class into
> people-born-as-late-as-himself-or-later [p. 261, The End of the World]
> If you do a Bayesian analysis of all your information carefully, the DA
> effect will be embodied in your analysis, and should not need to be added
> in seperately.
True. The reason why we might want to add it in separately is to more clearly see what effect it should have on our belief system.
> I'm now reading your paper on the DA, and hope to write a summary
> of my opinions on DA soon.
I look forward to that.
[I should say that the formulae in my "Investigations"-paper
apparently don't display properly. But it is possible to download the
document as a Microsoft Word file from
http://www.hedweb.com/nickb/doomsday/papers.htm.
I also have two shorter papers there.]