Are there any quantitative arguments to support the argument that the
twentieth century was one of unparalleled technological acceleration?
This came up on another mailing list in which a few people were attempting
to support religious claims about a "new aeon" based in part on the claim
that the century just ended was witness to unprecedented technological
acceleration. No one was able to come up with a scholarly source
demonstrating that, though, and I find I am unsure that it is not a kind of
horizon effect. Every one of the last eight centuries at least has seen
major technological changes from the previous century.
Since this model of techno-acceleration seems to be a major assumption
behind the idea of the Singularity, I thought perhaps someone here could
provide some non-anecdotal, empirical backing for it. I don't find anything
substantive in places like those linked below, which simply state the
acceleration as if it were an obvious fact.
http://www.aleph.se/Trans/Global/Singularity/
http://www.ugcs.caltech.edu/~phoenix/vinge/vinge-sing.html
http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/SINGULAR.html
I have yet to see one of these asymptotic curves that was a real graph, that
is, one in which both the X and Y axes are some measurable quantity.
(And yes, I know about Moore's Law. That's not a metric of overall
technological advancement, only practical computer circuit density. Ditto
for human population growth.)
-- Tim Maroney tim@maroney.org
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