Greg Burch, GBurch1@aol.com, writes:
> Speaking of future timelines and scenario building, we had a discussion here > about a year ago on general scenario-building that resulted in my compilation > of a timeline stretching from 2000 to 2015. You can find it at: > > http://users.aol.com/gburch2/scnrio1.html > > I have rechecked it from time to time and, while it is of course still quite > early, I'm still pretty happy with what we came up with.
: Computer Technology (Processing, Interface, Software, Networks):
None of these will happen by 2003. Flat screens will probably still
be too expensive;
: Interfaces:
: flat screens become common;
: first practical consumer VR interfaces;
: retina painters become available in some industrial applications;
: speech input becoming more common, especially with palmtops;
: crude VR avatars/virtual spaces available
: Software:
: first consumer-level remembrance agents;
: first consumer-level personalizable full-time network spiders
: Communication Technology:
: cell phones the size of credit cards; a few disposable cell phones;
: neurochips implanted into small lab mammals with minimal effect;
I don't think so, maybe just a few
: breakthroughs in Alzheimer disease
No reason to expect this.
: Genetic Science and Technology:
: human cloning bans enforced; first human clone announced in lab in Latin America or Asia; s
No human clones.
: General Medicine:
: AIDS effectively reduced to level of non-lethal chronic disease;
Not in Africa
: very effective chemical treatments for coronary artery disease developed;
No, very unlikely.
: angiostatin-endostatin proves highly effective in first human trials as general anti-cancer agent;
Probably not.
: continued progress in human cryopreservation techniques significantly reduces freezing damage
Maybe, given the terrible state of the art, there will be some
improvement. Cryonics will still
: Other Biology:
: pharmaceutical ranching becomes common;
I doubt it.
: Power Technology:
: U.S. power market continues process of deregulation;
Maybe.
: natural gas "micro-turbines" become available at the consumer level;
No chance.
: MEMs become available in some major consumer devices
Just airbags like now.
: Aeronautics:
: Boeing announces plans to build a large HST;
Doubtful.
: Space Technology and Development:
: NASA space station becomes operable;
But useless.
No.
: continuing development of expertise consultancy in areas other than traditional professions (software, other
: engineering, personnel management, finance);
Doubtful.
: first practical private e-cash
Very doubtful.
: Personal Lifestyles:
: development of second career ideal among healthy "Boomers" in their 50s;
: Law and Government:
: first "virtual courtrooms" demonstrated;
Unlikely.
: first commercial applications of smart contracts;
No.
: complete overhaul and simplification of the U.S. tax code complete;
Absolutely not.
: first consumer-level virtual environmental tools;
No.
: first real interactive fiction;
No.
: continuing human/machine artistic collaborations
Not a significant artistic force.
Hal