Near-Term Scenarios

GBurch1 (GBurch1@aol.com)
Fri, 8 May 1998 21:17:42 EDT

Its been a while since we've discussed concrete scenarios of technological,
economic, social and political development. The last couple of years have
brought some dramatic news items on the technological front, and also perhaps
some continuing confirmation of trends that have been operating for some time.
These developments and continuing trends may have shaped or changed our views
of the near term.

I'm curious about list members' views of probable and possible developments
over the next twenty years and think a more or less focused discussion might
be enlightening. I'd like to start a thread here for discussion of specific
trends and developments and their impact on daily life and the "big picture",
with special emphasis on matters of interest to transhumans and extropians.
I'd like to solicit specific predictions for the 20 years beginning in 2000,
perhaps in 5-year increments. I'm particularly interested in folks that may
have a specialist's insight into particular technologies or social phenomena,
but would also like to solicit general discussion of interaction of specific
developments and general trends. With that introduction, I offer the
following outline as a framework for discussion (I'm sure I've left out some
key technology or social issue . . .):

2000
Computer Technology (Processing, Interface, Software, Networks):
Communication Technology:
Neuroscience/Neuromedicine/Bio-cognitive Science & Technology:
Genetic Science and Technology:
General Medicine:
Other Biology:
Power Technology:
Manufacturing and Materials Science & Technology
General Transportation Technology:
Aeronautics:
Space Technology and Development:
Business & Finance Technology and Practice:
Personal Lifestyles:
Law and Government:
Art and Entertainment:

2005
Computer Technology (Processing, Interface, Software, Networks):
Communication Technology:
Neuroscience/Neuromedicine/Bio-cognitive Science & Technology:
Genetic Science and Technology:
General Medicine:
Other Biology:
Power Technology:
Manufacturing and Materials Science & Technology
General Transportation Technology:
Aeronautics:
Space Technology and Development:
Business & Finance Technology and Practice:
Personal Lifestyles:
Law and Government:
Art and Entertainment:

2010
Computer Technology (Processing, Interface, Software, Networks):
Communication Technology:
Neuroscience/Neuromedicine/Bio-cognitive Science & Technology:
Genetic Science and Technology:
General Medicine:
Other Biology:
Power Technology:
Manufacturing and Materials Science & Technology
General Transportation Technology:
Aeronautics:
Space Technology and Development:
Business & Finance Technology and Practice:
Personal Lifestyles:
Law and Government:
Art and Entertainment:

2015
Computer Technology (Processing, Interface, Software, Networks):
Communication Technology:
Neuroscience/Neuromedicine/Bio-cognitive Science & Technology:
Genetic Science and Technology:
General Medicine:
Other Biology:
Power Technology:
Manufacturing and Materials Science & Technology
General Transportation Technology:
Aeronautics:
Space Technology and Development:
Business & Finance Technology and Practice:
Personal Lifestyles:
Law and Government:
Art and Entertainment:

2020
Computer Technology (Processing, Interface, Software, Networks):
Communication Technology:
Neuroscience/Neuromedicine/Bio-cognitive Science & Technology:
Genetic Science and Technology:
General Medicine:
Other Biology:
Power Technology:
Manufacturing and Materials Science & Technology
General Transportation Technology:
Aeronautics:
Space Technology and Development:
Business & Finance Technology and Practice:
Personal Lifestyles:
Law and Government:
Art and Entertainment:

Any input into the discussion will be appreciated -- I withhold my own for a
while . . .

Greg Burch <Gburch1@aol.com>----<burchg@liddellsapp.com>
Attorney ::: Director, Extropy Institute ::: Wilderness Guide
http://users.aol.com/gburch1 -or- http://members.aol.com/gburch1
"Good ideas are not adopted automatically. They must
be driven into practice with courageous impatience."