Point noted and appreciated. However I'm not even considering
information that is false. If one knows false information I concede that
this is entirely worthless. But at the same time, if one knows true
information, I'm suggesting that as that kind of information increases,
people will be less risk-averse. The conclusion is that perfect
information about all things (omniscience) leads to perfect behavior.
Risk becomes irrelevant.
> and it is not
> possible to know the future with 100% certainty.
You're right. But I'll take 99.9% certainty as good enough.
> The main thing that
> people seem not to know is how probability and statistics and risk
> work,
I think you're saying that the more information people have about such
things, the better they will perform. If so, this is precisely my point.
> and what they most seem to aggrandize is what they will lose on
> a given down side.
I'm not sure what you're saying here.
> Surveys show that many (most?) people are more
> afraid of public speaking than of death.
Is public speaking a risk? I think so, in a certain way. Now, I'm not
sure that the only reason people are afraid of public speaking is
risk-aversion. I figure self-confidence (a purely mental construction)
is the primary basis. Indeed, when I get up in court, the more
information I have about the law and the facts of the case, the more I
look forward to my argument. Again, where information increases,
risk-aversion decreases, the more sure of yourself you become.
> A given person can be an optimist in the face of scanty information,
> or a pessimist in the face of extensive information. I think most
> people tend towards pessimism, and others towards optimism.
I personally tend towards cynicism. But this only because I'm a stark
optomist. I have such a feeling that mankind is capable of everything
that I can't help a certain arrogance towards the people who are running
our world into the ground.
> I tell
> some people everything I know about cryonics and they say "What if
> it doesn't work?". My reply: "Maybe it won't, but then nothing's
> changed. The point is, what if it _does_?".
And that, my extropian friend, is indeed the point.
Boat drinks (check out Things to Do in Denver When You're Dead for an
explaination of this farewell...),
Hagbard