CurtAdams@aol.com wrote:
> >Violating conditionalization only opens you to a dutch book if you do it
> >in a predictable way. Your expectation of your future belief must equal
> >your conditional belief, but a non-zero variance is allowed around this.
>
> You are correct and my statement was too strong. However, adding variability
> to post-conditionalization opinions will on average worsen disagreement, so
> that won't serve to coordinate priors.
Completely random changes might worsen disagreement, but changes toward
a common prior would not.
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