From: "scerir" <scerir@libero.it>
> τΏτ writes:
> Useless hypotheses: consciousness, phlogiston, philosophy,
> vitalism, mind, free will
>
> and what about investors intelligence?
>
financial newsletter network
http://www.financialnewsletters.com/adcorn/intell.shtml
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE, started in the 50's, is best known for its BEARISH
SENTIMENT INDEX, an indicator that measures the sentiment of investment
newsletters. Started in 1963, it's best used as a Contrarian indicator.
When too many people think the market will go up, it goes down, and when
too many people think it will go down, it goes up..
I.I.'s basic strategy is to look for investments that have been unpopular,
but are just starting to become popular.
This is done by looking for stocks whose relative strength has switched
from negative to positive; where insiders have switched from selling to
buying; and where Industry Bullish % starts to move up from a low level.
Fourth in Mutual Fund performance for 10 years to 6/30/97, first on Risk
adjusted basis.
------------
As far as useless hypotheses go, investors' intelligence looks more
hypothetical than plainly useless. If investors could precisely predict
market fluctuations, they would no longer fluctuate (due to dampening
effect of accurate prediction). If we exactly determine volume, we can't
know the markets' final trajectory; and if we ascertain its direction, we
lose sight of its real volatility. Consequently, investors' AI expert
systems base predictions on insider information and covert knowledge,
rather than on trends or facts available to the general public. Market
prediction becomes accurate in direct proportion as it becomes
manipulated. Ever has it operated thus.
Tip: Invest in Redding, California real estate... plenty of electricity,
clean air and water, and all kinds of recreation.
τΏτ
Stay hungry,
--J. R.
Useless hypotheses: consciousness, phlogiston, philosophy, vitalism, mind,
free will
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