The question would be figuring the formula, using (say) lightspeed geometric vs. exponential growth-rate assumptions, the probability of a given island being absorbed during a given time-period. If this number is too high, then we have the result that, even though we've managed to survive until today, the probability is still 1000:1 (for!) that we'll be absorbed by tomorrow, or maybe even during the next second.
In this case, Yudkowsky's Modified Anthropic Occam's Razor kicks in and basically says "This theory has failed so many times that we might as well assume it's wrong."
YMAOR: That simplest explanation is true, which most uniquely predicts the present given the past, with the least reference to the Anthropic Principle.
MAOR: That simplest explanation is true, which predicts the present given the past, with the least reference to the Anthropic Principle.
AOR: That simplest explanation is true which least invokes the Anthropic Principle.
OR: The simplest explanation is the most probable.
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sentience@pobox.com Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://pobox.com/~sentience/AI_design.temp.html http://pobox.com/~sentience/singul_arity.htmlDisclaimer: Unless otherwise specified, I'm not telling you everything I think I know.