Peter C. McCluskey [pcm@rahul.net] wrote:
>Oil futures and other futures contracts provide as good an estimate as any
>of the risks of major disruptions. The oil futures market is saying quite
>clearly that there is no problem.
The problem with trusting futures markets for predicting the future is that you implicitly assume they have all the neccesary information; if they don't, then their predictions are as useless as Clinton speeches.
>The only futures markets that indicate a
>problem are the short-term interest rate markets, which predict a 30 basis
>point rise in rates from September to December
Interesting CNN article on that one:
http://www.cnnfn.com/digitaljam/9902/18/y2k_pkg/
Apparently they're betting on large-scale bank runs too.
Mark