-----Original Message-----
From: Anders Sandberg <asa@nada.kth.se>
To: extropians@extropy.com <extropians@extropy.com>
Date: 06 January 1999 17:04
Subject: Re: Major Technologies
>"Billy Brown" <bbrown@conemsco.com> writes:
>
>> Ah. I thought you meant accidental grey goo. Military action is indeed
>> another matter, and analysis on the subject tends to be pretty naive.
>>
>> <putting on military theorist hat>
>>
>> I see two very different scenarios, depending on how fast the takeoff
turns
>> out to be:
>>
>> If we solve the automated engineering problem well in advance of the
>> creation of the first assembler, then whoever first turns nanotech to
>> military use instantly becomes the world's dominant military power. They
>> will probably have a few weeks of lead time, and that's long enough to
>> achieve such overwhelming dominance that the second nanotech power would
be
>> hopelessly outmatched.
>
>Will they? On what assumptions do you base these predictions?
He seems to be assuming that once you have any nanotech, you have ultimate nanotech, rather than starting with the ability to create small basic designs and working up from there. I suspect that nanotechnology (at least to start off with) will consist of delicate, specific devices and that general purpouse robust models will take quite a while too evolve after that.
Samael