From: Brian D Williams (talon57@well.com)
Date: Wed Jan 02 2002 - 12:00:17 MST
>From: Geraint Rees <g.rees@fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk>
>I agree that long term prediction is much more difficult than
>short term, but that doesn't mean it's worth trying to get better
>at it. I'm also not suggesting that the two are mutually
>exclusive! For example, I agree with the short term goals that you
>suggest. But that doesn't mean that we shouldn't also invest in
>longer term planning, whether that means recruiting more CIA
>agents to infilitrate such networks, pressing for a peaceful
>solution to other longstanding regional conflicts, or whatever.
>Tough on terrorism, tough on the causes of terrorism, no?
Long term prediction is not only very difficult, but when dealing
with divergent sequences it is impossible. (Gregory Bateson, "Mind
and Nature")
Still not everything is a divergent sequence, and we can always
try. An excellent book on the subject is "The art of the long
view".
I very much agree with the rest of your post.
Brian
Member:
Extropy Institute, www.extropy.org
National Rifle Association, www.nra.org, 1.800.672.3888
SBC/Ameritech Data Center Chicago, IL, Local 134 I.B.E.W
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