I snipped the following from the "World Population Implosion" article:
"In 1995, the ratio of population between "less developed" and "more
developed" regions stood at about four to one; in 2050, by these
projections, it would be seven to one. The balance of population would shift
dramatically not only between given countries but even between entire
continents. In 1995, for example, the estimated populations of Europe
(including Russia) and Africa (including Egypt and the Maghreb states) were
almost exactly equal. In 2050, by these projections, Africans would
outnumber Europeans by over three to one."
I read an article sometime 18 to 24 months ago, online, it might have been
"Atlantic Monthly". I believe it was titled "A Remarkable Time". I have
tried a number of times to find it, after losing it a year or so ago. It
predicted that population will grow to about 9 or 10 billion in the next 40
to fifty years. Then it will slowly decrease. What's next, after that, is
pure speculation.
After reading the article, my concern was no longer increase in population,
but rather where the increases are taking place. If, in fact, our
population almost doubles before beginning to decline, 100% of that increase
will take place in earth's least population friendly places. There will be
4 billion more newbies in the poorest parts of the world, the places that
haven't changed in millenia. The "have's" will make up only a little over
10% of the population, and the 2040s' version of today's high school
educated, store clerk, single parent, living in a slumlord's hovel, without
medical insurance, will be one of the "haves".
xllb
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-extropians@extropy.com
[mailto:owner-extropians@extropy.com]On Behalf Of Robert J. Bradbury
Sent: March 25, 2000 3:37 AM
To: extropians@extropy.com
Subject: Productive Employment [was Re: Six Billion and Beyond]
In an effort to interject some additional "facts" into the discussion,
see:
"World Population Implosion?" @
http://www.pop.org/students/popimplode.html
Also, the "Population Reference Bureau" (http://www.prb.org/)
has a number of publications.
As Billy pointed out, all doomsday predictions are based on no
improvements in our technology base. IMO, far more concerning
than overpopulation would be the development of robotics or
sub-AI that eliminates the needs for employing a large fraction
of the population. If we assume, for the moment, that most
of the people on this list fall into the "above average" segment
of the population (in intelligence, education, awareness, etc.),
doesn't that give you pause to ask, just what does the "below average"
segment of the population do? And what will happen when they can
be replaced by a reliable 24-hour-a-day robot/AI?
Is Moravec's Tax-the-robots environment feasible? Would you as
a robot owner operate your robots in a taxing jurisdiction? Or
would you move your operations to a robot-tax-free state?
If the taxes on the robots are distributed to the people
will it not be strange to be paying for your hamburger at
MacWendKings with money derived from the "employees" at that
establishment?
Robert
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