In some cases, there is a clearly defined function,
and all the debate is how it should be optimized.
So if you have a number of opinions, you can try to
compare voting with IF market, and hopefully have IF
consistently win. That would mean adoption of IF
for the non-controversial part of decision-making schemes,
and a good PR for it in general.
Actually I think that IF can be further improved by
introducing opinion derivatives, and then underlying
knowledge derivatives, which would gradually turn the
market from a system balancing individual opinions
on the forecasts, to the system reasoning on the
combined knowledge of its participants, shared on
economic principles. This would augment knowledge-based
value exchange that currently represented in the stock
market, with value-based knowledge exchange that is
expressed in the behind-the-market decision making
processes that IF addresses.
(See
http://www.lucifer.com/~sasha/HEDG/ISAS98submission.html
for some ideas)
The results should be testable on both decision-making schemes
with consensus fitness functions and conventional value markets.
Now, if we could find a brainy investor...
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Alexander Chislenko <http://www.lucifer.com/~sasha/home.html>
Hypereconomy group: <http://www.lucifer.com/~sasha/HEDG/HEDG.html>
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