From: M T (nutralivol@yahoo.co.uk)
Date: Wed May 03 2006 - 05:31:38 MDT
Bob, you said:
> "Do you think that progress will stop just for this
> generation?" Certainly
> not. However, I don't think progress is exponential
> (Kurweil's Law of
> Accelerating Returns, for example) since it never
> has been. IMO, the rate
> of technological change in the West has been roughly
> constant since the
> Industrial Revolution.
So, you say that progress has never been exponential.
Dani Eder mentioned the GDP and manufacturing
productivity as an indication.
Even Moore's law has been going strong (or close
enough).
There are many irefutable examples in Kurzweil's TSIN
about exponential trends from the past to the present.
OK, so noone can predict the future.
But you are incapable of evaluating the past.
You also said:
> To respond to your earlier email, you said, "If only
> the general populace
> understood how close we were and the potential of
> these technologies. If
> only Bob. And you can define "close" as anything you
> like. Even a couple of
> centuries is close, though I see it as a couple of
> decades until the full
> bloom of the aforementioned technologies."
>
> If you define "close" as a couple of centuries, then
> I'm right with you.
> However, I'm pessimistic about seeing the full bloom
> of AGI, nanotech, and
> so on in just 20 years.
Again you are sidestepping my main point. Which is
that you are assuming things about the perceptions of
the general population.
Specifically, you said that the majority of the
population percieves nanotech and renewable
energy(pressumably other techs as well) as current
technologies and so they think we are making much more
progress than we are.
Your definition of "the majority of the population"
must be really skewed.
Out of personal observation, the majority of the
population leads a simple life. Nanotech (in the sense
of a MNfactory) is sci-fi for them, along with AGI,
moon bases and flying cars.
You are talking about a small part of the population
that thrives on sci-fi and enjoys future-hypes (your
imediate social circle, maybe?).
IMO you haven't demonstrated any ability to logically
evaluate data and you haven't presented any sources to
compensate.
You've written a book though
Michael
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