From: Dani Eder (danielravennest@yahoo.com)
Date: Wed Jan 18 2006 - 05:30:05 MST
or have I just
> become dangerously
> comfortable with real SL4 content, so much so that
> it seems trivial now?
Not trivial, but not shocking anymore once understood.
The idea of progress has been around for a long time.
The idea that progress has been accelerating has
been around for a century or so.
The idea that there will be a time of fastest progress
is relatively new, but follows when you think about
it.
Either progress will accelerate to an asymtote, or it
will level off due to some limit to further progress.
Either way, there is a time of fastest progress.
Since future progress is not predictable, the state
of civilization becomes less predictable with
distance in the future. So the idea that there is
a time horizon beyond which we cannot make useful
predictions is no more amazing to me than there is
a depth of water through which I cannot see looking
down from a boat.
Daniel
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