From: Daniel Radetsky (daniel@radray.us)
Date: Thu May 26 2005 - 00:07:22 MDT
On Thu, 26 May 2005 13:52:13 +1200 (NZST)
Marc Geddes <marc_geddes@yahoo.co.nz> wrote:
> > Seriously, you have figured out by now that it does
> > fit in, right?
> >
>
> No. No, I can't see how deductive reasoning fits into
> Bayesian Induction at all. Please entertain me.
Consider the probability calculus with propositions with probability equal to 1
or 0.
> There is inductive (associative) reasoning, where one
> is making probabilistic generalizations which don't,
> strictly speaking, follow from the premises.
But in Bayesian reasoning, near as I understand it, you make a generalization
with a degree of confidence, where the degree of confidence *does* follow from
the premises. I think you may be confusing standard induction with Bayesian
Induction.
> Then there is deductive (conceptual) reasoning, where
> linearly ordered logical steps follow from axioms with
> (near) certainty.
I think that from {a -> b, a}, b follows with complete certainty. There's no
"near" about it.
> Now perhaps you might try to argue that deductive
> reasoning is just a special case of induction, but I
> don't see this.
look harder.
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