From: Martin Striz (metastriz@yahoo.com)
Date: Thu Dec 09 2004 - 07:44:43 MST
--- Marc Geddes <marc_geddes@yahoo.co.nz> wrote:
> In fact, I think only FAI will be able to get a real
> handle on aging. The human body is an enormously
> complex system and the hoped for anti-aging methods so
> far have proved to be nothing but hype. In fact most
> of the drugs developed by drug companies today
> actually have side-effects just as bad as the original
> condition they fix. That's the thing with the human
> body: a large number of different systems requiring
> very precise methods to fix.
The problem with the human body is pleiotropy.
> Lack of precision in
> treatments leads to side-effects which shorten life
> more than the treatment lengthens life. Then there is
> the problem of balances. Altering one part of the
> human body system can create an imbalance else where.
> In short, aging is one hell of a problem. I wouldn't
> put my hopes on cryonics or vitrification either.
> FAI's still your best bet for a fix over the longer
> term.
But FAI has also thus far proven to be nothing but hype, so on what do you base
your assessment? I'm not trying to be an asshole; I'm just trying to ask an
honest question. AI research itself has had a poor track record, so why do you
assume future AI research will be more prodigious than future nanotech,
cryonics, biomedical research, etc.?
>
> Those of you who have been following my posts know, of
> course, that I'm not as optimistic about the
> time-frame for FAI as Sing Inst enthusiasts. I still
> see FAI as being 15-30 years away at the earliest.
> Looking at the 30 years or less time frame, then it
> might be better to pursue options like cryonics,
> bio-medical life extension avenues etc.
>
> The one thing I'm reasonably sure about is this: if
> we don't get FAI before 2045 or so, then, to borrow a
> phrase from Damian Broderick's 'The Spike': '"We will
> all perish most horribly"
Or nothing will happen, but people will keep dying.
Martin
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