From: Thomas Buckner (tcbevolver@yahoo.com)
Date: Wed May 26 2004 - 12:05:51 MDT
--- Ben Goertzel <ben@goertzel.org> wrote:
>
>
> Ben wrote:
>
> > > I suspect (but don't know) that this is not
> merely
> > hideously difficult
> > > but IMPOSSIBLE for highly intelligent
> self-modifying AI systems. I
> > > suspect that for any adequately intelligent
> system there is some
> > > nonzero possibility of the system reaching ANY
> POSSIBLE
> > POINT of the
> > > state space of the machinery it's running on.
> So, I
> > suspect, one is
> > > inevitably dealing with probabilities.
>
>
> Eliezer wrote:
> > Odd. Intelligence is the power to know more
> accurately and
> > choose between
> > futures. When you look at it from an
> information-theoretical
> > standpoint,
> > intelligence reduces entropy and produces
> information, both
> > in internal
> > models relative to reality, and in reality
> relative to a
> > utility function.
> > Why should high intelligence add entropy?
>
> For roughly the same reason that your future is less
> certain than that
> of a rock!
>
> And, that you are more likely to turn yourself into
> a rock, than a rock
> is to turn itself into a human.
>
> It's true that intelligence allows the making of
> more accurate
> predictions. But it also enables the creation of
> more complexly
> indeterminate situations.
>
> -- Ben G
>
Exactly. The comparison I draw is with the Weather
Channel. They give local forecasts for the next five
days but in truth it's almost entirely unreliable on
days 4 and 5 (unless you live in, say, Tuscon). The
possible states explode chaotically and local
predictions more than three days out are usually trash
There may be a giant front coming through in five days
but they still can't tell you exactly how it will play
out in your town. You can put up three times the
satellites and hire ten times as many meteorologists,
all smarter than Newton, and just maybe it buys you an
extra day of reliability. This isn't even a
controversial issue any more. More intelligence does
not add entropy. But it can sure get outrun by it.
=====
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