From: Remco Gerlich (scarblac@pino.selwerd.nl)
Date: Thu Feb 28 2002 - 18:20:40 MST
On 0, Max <mcomess@ucla.edu> wrote:
> I'm just curious so I thought I'd aSk the list:
>
> When do you think the singularity will occur. IMHO I think it will be 5-10
> years, or whenever someone comes out with computers based on those
> nanocircuits HP was developing. At 10^5 denser then today's tech, not to
> mention layering which could add several more orders of mag. improvement....
> I mean, what would you do with a ~1Pflops computer???
Well, not create an intelligence, since I haven't found out how to program
one yet.
I believe the bottleneck on a Singularity is not computer performance;
they're already somewhat faster than we need at the moment and will become
lots and lots faster.
There is so much work left to do to create a general intelligence, and all
of it hard human work that won't scale well in teams.
I don't believe genetic engineering is going to produce significant advances
in intelligence in the next 50 years.
Also, nanotech may happen in some very limited form but not enough to lead
to a singularity without superhuman intelligence guiding it.
I expect at least 20 years, probably more like 30 years for programming a
good enough general intelligence. I hope to be able to be a part of this,
I'm just now finishing my CS study, I need to make some money somehow, but
otherwise I want to work on this.
But that's a very wild guess - just my intuition.
Another part of me says that we will continue as before, gradual improvement
in technology, no singularity. People will have enough of technology at some
point. Research money will go into entertainment only.
-- Remco Gerlich
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